JPMorgan has reaffirmed its ‘Overweight’ rating on Hindalco and raised the target price to ₹720, citing a solid Q4FY25 showing in the India aluminium business and continued net debt reduction. The brokerage believes that domestic operational strength is now materially offsetting known headwinds at Novelis.
Hindalco’s Q4 net profit rose 10.5% YoY to ₹1,561 crore, while revenue increased 13.4% to ₹25,116 crore. EBITDA jumped 35.5% YoY to ₹3,008 crore, improving margin to 11.98% from 10.03%.
India business EBITDA was 7% ahead of JPMorgan’s estimates, buoyed by a stronger product mix in aluminium downstream and the delayed benefit of higher alumina prices. Upstream EBITDA per tonne surged 74% YoY to $1,684, and downstream EBITDA rose 46% YoY to $240 per tonne — both exceeding expectations.
JPMorgan expects a slight QoQ decline in aluminium EBITDA/t in Q1FY26 due to softening prices but sees this being offset in FY26 by incremental downstream volumes and stable costs. The company’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 1.06x from 1.33x, offering investor comfort.
Disclaimer: This article is based on the brokerage report by JPMorgan. It does not constitute investment advice.
