JPMorgan has issued a stark warning for equity markets, projecting a worst-case scenario of 4,000 for the S&P 500 index, as concerns mount over the economic fallout of sweeping tariffs announced by the Trump administration. This implies a further steep decline from current levels, signaling deep investor anxiety over the direction of the U.S. and global economies.
In another news, JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon has issued a stark warning over the economic fallout of the sweeping tariffs introduced by the US administration, stating that the policies are likely to raise consumer prices and trigger recession risks.
In his annual letter to shareholders on Monday, Dimon noted, “We are likely to see inflationary outcomes, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices as well, as input costs rise and demand increases on local products.” He cautioned that these tariffs could slow economic growth, calling them “one large additional straw on the camel’s back.”
Dimon also flagged heightened uncertainty over the potential impact of the duties on the US dollar and global capital flows, emphasizing that such moves introduce volatility and unpredictability into the global trade landscape.
His remarks echo growing concerns in the financial community. Just days earlier, billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman publicly criticized President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy, saying it was causing business leaders to lose confidence. “This is not what we voted for,” Ackman posted on X, warning that the economic consequences for the US and its citizens will be severely negative.
The brokerage firm has also raised its recession probability for the U.S. and global economy to 60%, up from a prior 40%, citing the growing risk of supply chain disruptions, weakening business sentiment, and retaliatory trade measures.
“Disruptive U.S. policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” JPMorgan noted in its April 4 investor update. The firm emphasized that the new trade environment is less business-friendly than previously anticipated, increasing the risk of a slowdown in global growth.
JPMorgan joins a growing list of global financial institutions adjusting their outlooks.
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S&P Global now sees a 30–35% chance of a U.S. recession (up from 25% in March).
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Goldman Sachs raised its forecast last week to 35% from 20%.
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HSBC said that while a recession narrative is gaining traction, markets have already priced in about 40% probability.
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Analysts from Barclays, BofA Global Research, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets, and UBS have echoed similar concerns.
With China retaliating with its own set of levies on U.S. goods, the risk of a prolonged trade war has heightened, contributing to extreme volatility in global markets and raising fears that the economic slowdown may be more severe and prolonged than earlier feared.
