Morgan Stanley has maintained an ‘Underweight’ rating on MCX with a target price of ₹3,400, citing weaker-than-expected transaction revenue for the fourth quarter of FY25. The exchange reported transaction revenue of ₹2.89 billion, down 4% QoQ but up 60% YoY. This was 1% below Morgan Stanley’s estimate of ₹2.93 billion.
Average daily transaction revenue (ADTR) came in at ₹39 million for Q4, with March ADTR settling slightly lower at ₹38.9 million. This was based on transaction fees of ₹2.1 per ₹0.1 million of futures turnover and ₹41.8 for options.
While the brokerage is conservative in its near-term outlook, it notes that regulatory approval for the launch of weekly options could be a key upside trigger. Morgan Stanley has factored in ADTR of ₹40.2 million for FY26 and ₹41.9 million for FY27.
