Shares of Coal India Ltd. gained 1.87% to ₹370.65 as of 9:19 AM on Friday, following the company’s announcement of a uniform levy of ₹300 per tonne across all mines of its subsidiary, Northern Coalfields Ltd. (NCL), effective May 1, 2025. The stock traded within a day range of ₹365.70 – ₹375.75, with a previous close of ₹363.85. The company’s market capitalization stands at ₹2.29 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 5.83 and a dividend yield of 6.74%.
Analysts see up to 45% upside potential in Coal India stock after the miner announced the new levy. The company expects the levy to generate an additional revenue of ₹3,877.5 crore, considering NCL’s 114 million tonnes (MT) of dispatches from April 2024 to January 2025, which represents 19% of Coal India’s total dispatch of 630 MT during the period.
Brokerage views:
- Nuvama expects the levy to add ₹34 per share to Coal India’s fair value and raise FY26 and FY27 EBITDA estimates by 9% and 10%. It maintains a ₹419 target, implying a 15% upside, which could increase to 25% with the revised valuation.
- Morgan Stanley retains an “Overweight” rating with a ₹525 price target, suggesting a 45% upside. It believes the levy, equivalent to 2.5% of FY26 revenue, poses an 8% upside risk to next year’s earnings estimates.
- JPMorgan maintains a “Neutral” rating with a ₹420 target, implying a 15.7% upside. It estimates an 8-9% increase in EBITDA flow-through for FY26 and FY27.
Analyst Ratings Summary:
Of the 24 analysts covering Coal India, 18 have a ‘Buy’ rating, four have a ‘Hold’ rating, and two have a ‘Sell’ rating.
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