Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is set to announce its Q3 FY25 results later today, with investors and analysts closely monitoring the performance of the oil-to-telecom conglomerate. The results are expected to show mixed trends, with strong growth in telecom likely offset by muted retail growth and challenges in the energy segment.

Key Expectations:

  • Revenue Growth:
    • YoY sales growth is estimated between 3.7% and 5.4%, with revenues ranging from ₹2,33,338 crore to ₹2,44,248 crore, depending on the brokerage.
  • Net Profit:
    • YoY net profit is projected to decline by 4.6%-4.7%, landing at ₹16,461 crore to ₹16,475 crore.
  • EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization):
    • Consolidated EBITDA is expected to rise 9% QoQ to ₹42,500 crore, driven by robust telecom performance and improved refining margins.

Segmental Highlights:

Telecom (Jio):

  • EBITDA: Estimated at ₹16,170 crore, up 8% QoQ, driven by a sharp rise in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) to ₹209, compared to ₹195 in Q2.
  • Recovery in subscriber additions is also anticipated.

Retail:

  • Core EBITDA: Likely to rise 5% QoQ to ₹6,380 crore, supported by higher footfalls and a 7% YoY increase in revenue per square foot.
  • Overall retail sales growth is projected at 5% YoY, including connectivity.

Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C):

  • EBITDA: Estimated at ₹13,600 crore, reflecting a 10% QoQ increase, underpinned by improved refining margins of $9.3 per barrel. However, YoY margins are expected to remain subdued due to weak petrochemical performance.

Key Areas to Watch:

New Energy Investments: Updates on the ₹75,000 crore investment plans in new energy segments will be crucial.

  1. Retail Expansion: Growth in retail store additions and footfall trends will be scrutinized.
  2. Telecom Pricing: Any pricing actions or strategy changes in the telecom segment could influence investor sentiment.

Brokerage Insights:

  • Goldman Sachs: Expects Jio Infocomm’s revenues to grow 19% YoY to ₹30,100 crore, with a reported ARPU of ₹209.
  • Nomura India: Highlights growth in consumer-facing businesses, driven by Jio and modest retail performance.
TOPICS: Reliance Industries