HSBC on Life Insurance: HSBC noted that the individual annualised premium equivalent (APE) growth in September 2024 was driven primarily by Life Insurance Corporation of India (LICI). The growth in the number of policies sold also remained robust. HSBC attributed this strong performance to a potential preponement of sales due to changes in commission structures. Additionally, new product launches, expanded distribution channels, and positive equity market trends indicate a favorable growth outlook for the overall life insurance industry.
Morgan Stanley on Life Insurance: Morgan Stanley highlighted a 28% year-on-year (YoY) growth in individual APE for the private sector, building on a 12% YoY base from September 2023. ICICI Prudential Life (IPru Life) and HDFC Life performed well, with APE growth of 33% and 25%, respectively. On the other hand, growth at SBI Life was relatively muted at 9%, attributed to a strong base of 16% in the previous year. For Q2 FY25, estimated growth for IPru Life, HDFC Life, and SBI Life stood at 34%, 28%, and 11%, respectively.
Nomura on Life Insurance: Nomura observed that public insurance companies outpaced the overall industry growth in September 2024, registering a 48% YoY increase compared to 1% and 5% growth in August 2024 and September 2023, respectively. Private insurers also performed well, with 28% YoY growth, though their market share declined to 65% in September 2024 from 68.2% in the same month last year. Banca channels outperformed with 29% growth, while agency channels reported a lower 17% growth. For Q2 FY25, overall industry growth came in at 21%, with private players growing at 24%, significantly higher than the 8% and 13% growth seen in Q2 FY24.
CLSA on Life Insurance: CLSA reported that private life insurers saw 19% and 18% YoY growth in APE for Q2 FY25 and total APE for 1H FY25, respectively, from a 13% and 11% base. The number of policies sold increased by 13% in Q2 FY25 and 14% in 1H FY25. ULIPs maintained strong momentum throughout the quarter. Max Life emerged as the strongest performer in Q2 FY25 with 26% YoY growth, despite a high 39% base. ICICI Prudential Life and HDFC Life reported 22% and 23% growth on more modest bases of 3% and 7%, respectively. However, SBI Life saw a mere 1% YoY growth due to its high 33% base. CLSA expects VNB margins to remain stable in H1 FY25, except for Max Life, which could see a 2.5 percentage point increase in margins, as its Q1 margins are typically weaker.
These brokerage views indicate a strong growth trajectory for both public and private sector life insurers, though performance varies across companies and sales channels.
