Citi has reiterated its “Sell” recommendation for Lupin, with a target price of Rs 1,700 per share. This comes in light of recent developments regarding Lupin’s generic version of Jynarque.
Key points from Citi’s analysis:
- Otsuka, the innovator of Jynarque, has filed a notice of appeal against a district court’s verdict on the generic version.
- While Lupin may still prevail in a higher court, its planned generic launch in April 2025 could now be considered an ‘at risk’ launch.
- Potential delays may occur due to injunctions or restraining orders.
- Lupin might delay the launch, as an ‘at risk’ launch may not realize the full potential of being the sole first-to-file (FTF) generic.
- Jynarque contributes approximately 30% to Citi’s FY26 EPS projections for Lupin, and this figure may face downside risk.
Citi’s analysis suggests caution regarding Lupin’s near-term prospects, particularly concerning its generic Jynarque plans. The firm maintains its bearish stance on the stock, factoring in these potential challenges to Lupin’s earnings forecasts.
Investors are advised to consider these factors when evaluating Lupin’s stock, noting the uncertainties surrounding the generic Jynarque launch and its potential impact on the company’s future earnings.
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