A recent article from the South China Morning Post (SCMP) adds to the controversy by reporting that India’s intelligence agency, RAW, is accused of eliminating 20 individuals in Pakistan. These individuals belonged to a faction that the US has designated as a terrorist group.
While the Indian government has not formally responded to these allegations, India’s Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh, stated during a television interview last Saturday that India would take action against anyone who threatens its peace and then seeks refuge in Pakistan, when he was asked about the credibility of the report.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry sharply criticized Singh’s comments, labeling them as “inflammatory.” Islamabad cautioned that the short-sighted and reckless actions of Indian leaders might jeopardize peace in the region. At the same time, Pakistan demanded that India be held responsible and asserted that they had undeniable proof connecting India to the unlawful killings.
Before the exchange of harsh words, Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Ishaq Dar, had shown interest in restarting trade with India. However, Islamabad subsequently retracted this statement. Political experts held hope that a shift in leadership in Islamabad might lead to an easing of the enduring hostilities between India and Pakistan.
Michael Kugelman, who heads the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, mentioned to the South China Morning Post that since both nations are dealing with major issues, it’s in the best interest of Delhi and Islamabad to prevent their relations from deteriorating further.
According to Kugelman, the expert, both India and Pakistan are facing various challenges. India is currently dealing with a challenge posed by China, while Pakistan is grappling with internal issues and border tensions with Afghanistan and Iran. However, Kugelman believes that neither country has an interest in escalating tensions.
The expert noted that the reaction described in The Guardian report appears to be more of a performance rather than a genuine reflection of the situation. However, he also acknowledged that it does indicate a deteriorating relationship between the two sides. He cautioned that considering the fragile nature of their ties and the historical issues they carry, a new crisis could easily emerge with minimal provocation.
Kugelman pointed out that both India and Pakistan have set forth certain conditions for each other, creating a challenging situation where reaching a consensus for a formal dialogue becomes difficult.
According to Kugelman, India has stated that it cannot engage in talks with Pakistan unless the issue of terrorism is addressed. On the other hand, Pakistan is implying that unless India revises its policy in Kashmir, specifically reversing its decision on repealing Article 370, a broader dialogue with India is unlikely. Kugelman specifically referred to Delhi’s stance on Kashmir in this context.
Pakistan’s recent accusation follows similar allegations made by Canada and the United States against India several months ago. These accusations involved claims of extrajudicial killings and alleged attempts by India to target Sikh leaders seeking separatism, even on foreign soil.
As per senior Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir, who initially reported on Indian agencies’ involvement in the killings in Pakistan in September 2023, he revealed to This Week in Asia that intelligence officials from both countries had maintained long-term communication. This explains the initial lack of response on the matter, as reported by SCMP.
According to Mir, both sides had consistently avoided openly criticizing each other to prevent escalating tensions. However, the situation changed in August 2023 when a bomb blast occurred outside the residence of a militant leader in Islamabad. This incident served as a wake-up call for the people of Pakistan, prompting them to take notice and demand action.
After Pakistani intelligence made several arrests last year, leading to a halt in extrajudicial killings, Islamabad came to the realization that Indian agents were engaged in deceptive tactics and maintaining a secret cell with a command center in the UAE, according to Mir. He further stated that The Guardian report compelled Pakistan to finally respond and take action.
Anil Trigunayat, a former Indian diplomat, expressed to SCMP that the primary hurdle in the India-Pakistan relationship continues to be cross-border terrorism, which makes it difficult to bring about substantial changes in their ties.
Trigunayat emphasized that tensions between India and Pakistan would only subside if Pakistan could provide credible assurance that it would effectively address the issue of terrorism originating from its territory. He stated that a genuine commitment from Pakistan in tackling this issue would contribute to a reduction in tensions between the two countries.
Trigunayat stated that the only possible significant changes in the relationship between the two countries could occur during the Narendra Modi government. He emphasized that India has always believed that a prosperous Pakistan is beneficial for India. However, he emphasized the importance of meeting India’s desired conditions rather than having a one-sided approach. To summarize, Trigunayat highlighted the need for bilateral cooperation and mutual fulfillment of expectations for a positive
The impact of the election on the situation:
As India’s general elections on April 19 draw near, the emergence of these fresh allegations becomes significant. Pakistan is a topic of sensitivity in Indian political discourse and is frequently exploited by politicians, particularly those affiliated with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to garner nationalist support. To put it simply, politicians often use the issue of Pakistan to their advantage during election campaigns in India.
Ajay Gudavarthy, an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Centre for Political Studies, stated to This Week in Asia that there is a prevailing belief that the BJP government possesses the capability to shape a narrative focused on security issues during election campaigns. This information was reported by SCMP.
He referenced the 2019 tragedy where 40 Indian troops lost their lives in a terror strike in the Kashmir region governed by India. He observed that the BJP has embraced a tough anti-terrorism stance, summarized in the slogan “Ghar Mai Gus Kai Maregai,” that translates to “we will track down terrorists in their hideouts and eliminate them.”This position has been frequently highlighted by Prime Minister Modi in his latest campaign speeches.
Gudavarthy mentioned that stirring up intense national pride might not work as well now, as people seem less enthusiastic due to a scandal involving government bonds that has caused widespread concern. The veteran reporter Mir suggested that the Indian official Singh’s remarks were an attempt to leverage issues for political gain with elections looming. Meanwhile, he noted that Pakistan was not in a place to achieve any significant progress towards peace.
Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently hinted at the possibility of trade with India, but following this revelation, it will be challenging for him to proceed. The timing of this news is quite fascinating, Mir noted.
Mir pointed out that Saudi Arabia was keen on seeing better relations between India and Pakistan. He highlighted that it was during Pakistan Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia that this matter came up again.
Following the conclusion of Sharif’s visit, a joint announcement from Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry revealed that both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emphasized the need for talks between Islamabad and Delhi. They underlined the importance of addressing the unresolved matters, particularly the Jammu and Kashmir conflict, to secure peace and stability in the area. Mir expressed that Sharif “might not be in a position to fulfill the wishes of his Saudi allies anytime soon.”
