Due to mixed signals from the Russian military, NATO allies have backed up Ukraine by sending more troops, military equipment and medical aid. This move is in response to the growing tensions sparked by the Russian military along the Ukraine- Belarus border. Moscow abhors Ukraine’s pro-Western interests and wants to stop it at all costs from becoming a NATO member.
Putin blames the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for compromising Russia’s security.
Here is our analysis on current situation:
Why the Conflict?
For centuries Ukraine and Russia shared a bond thicker than blood. Ukraine gained independence and became a Soviet republic when the USSR disintegrated in 1991. Ukraine slowly maneuvered towards the West leaving its Russian legacy behind.
Former Ukrainian President Yanukovych was ousted for rejecting the association with European Union which would increase the ties with Russia, he was inclining towards the West which kicked off the Ukrainian revolution in 2014.
In response to it, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula and backed up separatist forces that created a ruckus in Ukraine’s East. To date, the West and Ukraine accuse Russia of supporting rebels and instigating unrest. Moscow clearly denies any such doing and said the rebels were volunteers.
Close to 14,000 Ukrainians lost their lives fighting in the Donbas region, which is the industrial heartland.
Moscow criticized the US and its NATO members for instigating the already problem creating rebels, separatist groups to regain power over the insurgent-held regions forcibly.
How can Russia be halted?
The minute Ukraine declares it’s not going to take up NATOs membership Russia will rejoice and never think of threatening Ukraine.
However, NATO already knows Ukraine is inclined towards the West and it will for sure not leave this opportunity to expand its military foothold. Russia feels threatened by the military drills being carried out by NATO near its borders.
Putin had given several warnings to NATO, it also wants NATO to retrieve its troops from Eastern Europe. Last December Putin wanted guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward and will not deploy any offensive war artillery to threaten Russian territory.
Putin demanded legal guarantees, not verbal oaths.
Apparently, Ukraine would need all the 30 states to approve its entry to NATO.
Present-day The US and NATO have taken a look at what are the demands of Russia. However, Moscow and the West haven’t made public as to what they have agreed upon. Although the core demands of Ukraine’s entry to NATO, non-expansion to the East holds barred.
Will Ukraine succeed in getting a NATO membership?
Ukraine yearns to be a NATO member. It has given a heads up for the possible alliance to NATO. However there is a glitch, NATO wants Ukraine to pluck out deep-rooted corruption in Kyiv.
General Stoltenberg, NATOs secretary in December 2021 canceled Putin’s demands to abrogate Ukraine his commitment to Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Stoltenberg said when the right time comes Russia will not have any say in Ukraine’s Allegiance to NATO.
Analysts predict that NATO allies and Biden mostly are unenthusiastic to extend their military bases in the region as they don’t want to risk their relationship with The Kremlin.
While Stoltenberg and Blinken are going all out to extend their support to Ukraine, Biden stands uncertain.
Will Russia execute a full-blown offensive on Ukraine?
The West claims that Russia wouldn’t simply amass 100,000 troops near the Ukraine-Belarus border if not for an imminent offensive on its pro-Western proximate.
Joe Biden reflects complete concord on Russia’s dealings. Pentagon unleashed an additional 8,500 troops for the deployment and NATO will back up with war offensive jets and ships to strengthen Ukraine and Belarus’ defenses.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman worried that these backups would exacerbate an existing crisis. He told media reporters, ” The US is escalating tensions, we are watching their actions with great concern.”
As usual, Putin puts to rest any such claims of attacking Ukraine and indicts The United States for deteriorating the diplomacy efforts.
We can not predict whether the war will happen or not, however, knowing Putin and how much he abhors Ukraine’s membership to show his supremacy and to halt any plans of further expansion of influence Eastward.
Steven Pifer, a scholar at Stanford says,” I believe the costs of Russia attacking Ukraine would significantly outweigh the benefits. However, Mr. Putin seems to operate on a different logic and officials in Washington and European capitals have expressed real alarm about the prospect of Russian military action. Western officials would be wise to assume the worst and do everything they can to try to dissuade the Kremlin from war.
What if Russia invaded Ukraine?
Ukraine has earned massive support from the Western leaders, the UK and the US have backed Ukraine with weapons, Germany has volunteered to give on-field medical aid sans artillery.
One of the toughest sanctions Russia will ever face will be the financial hit that could weaken its economy immediately. Russia will not get access to any US dollars. This and many other personal targets have been planned. Although these sanctions will put the US at risk, their energy prices could increase manifold and the US is well aware of the fact that any war and any sanction comes at a cost.
This move could completely cut off Russia from SWIFT money transactions, international leverage from Oil&Gas production, this alone forms 40% of Russia’s revenue.
US dollar enjoys the top spot in the financial world with trillions of dollars already in rotation across the globe.
The US will also not think twice to cut off high-tech connectivity that supports Russian warplanes and passenger flights in navigating and last but not the least smart phone connectivity of Russian civilians.
