The Arctic that was regarded as a far off and frozen frontier has quickly evolved to become a land of strategic and economic importance. The changing Arctic scenery is changing rapidly in almost four times the rate of global average and is opening up new shipping routes and vast reserves of energy and strategic minerals. In the context of this change, geopolitical rivalry is becoming increasingly fierce, and the benefits are obviously on Russia and China, whereas the United States and Europe find it hard to hold on.
Russia has already become the Arctic superpower, whose Arctic regions offer unmatched domination of energy resources and mineral resources. The Russian Arctic oil and gas fields contribute about 20 percent of total Russian oil production; and its Arctic reserves contain 35.7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, about three-quarters of the total proven reserves of the country. The Arctic regions of Russia also hold large reserves of rare earths, nickel, cobalt, and platinum-group metals besides hydrocarbons. This concentration of assets enables Russia to make an economic and strategic impact over the trade routes through the North, and solidify in place as the dominant Arctic player.
Western Arctic holdings, on the contrary, are scattered and relatively few. Alaska is only a small producer of crude, approximately 3.5 percent of the total crude produced in the U.S, and Sweden has a mine at Kiruna that produces a significant amount of rare earths to the EU. Finland is on the verge of being the first integrated producer of lithium in the EU and the mineral wealth of Greenland has not been fully exploited because of the logistical difficulties. These resources are valuable, but the discontinuous nature of Western possessions and the lack of infrastructure puts the U.S. and the EU in a disadvantaged strategic position against the concentrated and well-developed presence of Russia in the Arctic.
Russia is also in a stronger position because of control of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The invasion of Ukraine has caused the Arctic energy exports to be diverted eastwards via the NSR due to the European sanctions. This passage almost cuts the time that travel has been taking in the Suez Canal by almost half than in the north part of Europe and Asia and gives Moscow control over the world shipping routes. Russian LNG exports are still flowing to Asian and European markets and it proves that its Arctic strategy is hard and the flexibility of its operations through control of the NSR. The fact that the planned ban on all Russian LNG imports by the EU is scheduled to come into force in January 2027 serves only to highlight the significance of the Arctic as an area where Russia will have an independent economic and strategic advantage.
China, in its turn, has approached the Arctic in the long-term perspective, which enhances the leadership of Russia. Chinese firms have almost 30 percent of the Yamal LNG project valued at 27 billion US dollars, and are guaranteed of energy supplies as well as having access to polar energy technologies. Along with energy, China is aggressively seeking Arctic mineral wealth including rare earths in Greenland and nickel and iron ore throughout the High North. These investments will make the Arctic directly related to the global clean-energy supply chains and strengthen the relationship of China and Russia. The Arctic is becoming the main focus of the Chinese Polar Silk Road that ensures a stable alternative to the traditional shipping routes and minimizes dependence on external factors.
Russia and China are jointly transforming the Arctic into a zone of concentrated power, combining power over energy, mineral resources, and shipping routes. The fact that Russia was able to circumvent the chokepoints of the West and still delivered LNG during the sanctions proves that the Arctic strategy has been effective. Equally, long-term investments allow China to have important supplies and strengthen its bargaining stance internationally. In comparison, the U.S and Europe struggle with the problems of infrastructure and the fragmentation of resources, and they are not able to project influence in the High North.
The Arctic is not on the periphery anymore but has turned into the center of the new geoeconomic order. The concentrated resource base and control of the NSR provide Russia with leverage it is unparalleled in the region and Moscow can determine the patterns of trade and the energy flows on its terms. The complementary nature of China also enhances this role further, whereby the Arctic corridor is a stable, dependable, and strategically beneficial pathway to partners who are in line with Russian interests.
With the ice receding and the Arctic opening up to navigation, the benefits of concentrated power and strategic vision are now becoming apparent. To Russia and China, the High North is not just a source of natural resources but also a strategic ground of economic and geopolitical power in the long run. In the meantime, the U.S. and Europe are having a hard time keeping pace with the attention, infrastructure, and co-ordination of these Arctic powers. Russia is taking a center-stage in the new Arctic environment, and it is evident that the country is the major player in one of the most significant and fast-changing regions of the globe.