A total of 5.4 million people have returned to Afghanistan since October 2023, primarily from neighboring Pakistan and Iran, according to the United Nations refugee agency. Speaking via video link from Kabul to a U.N. briefing in Geneva, UNHCR’s Afghanistan representative Arafat Jamal stated that the scale and pace of returns have pushed Afghanistan close to the brink. He described the movement as massive, noting that the speed and magnitude of the influx have placed extraordinary pressure on an already fragile state. The large-scale returns followed Pakistan’s sweeping crackdown launched in October 2023 targeting undocumented migrants, urging voluntary departure to avoid arrest and deportation while forcibly expelling others. Iran initiated similar enforcement measures around the same period. Since then, millions have crossed back into Afghanistan, including individuals who were born in Pakistan decades ago and had established businesses and livelihoods there. Jamal reported that 2.9 million people returned last year alone, marking the largest number of returns witnessed to any single country. He added that approximately 150,000 people had already returned in the first month and a half of this year. Afghanistan, already facing a severe humanitarian crisis, economic fragility, drought conditions, and the aftermath of two devastating earthquakes, is now absorbing a population influx equivalent to roughly 12 percent of its total population. Afghan authorities are providing returnees with food aid, limited cash assistance, SIM cards, and transportation support, yet resources remain stretched.
UN Development Data Warns of Negative Coping Mechanisms as Sustainability Concerns Mount
During the Geneva briefing, Jamal conveyed deep concern about the sustainability of these returns. He indicated that while around 5 percent of returnees say they plan to leave Afghanistan again, more than 10 percent report knowing someone who has already departed. He emphasized that such dangerous onward journeys are not driven by a lack of desire to remain in Afghanistan, but rather by the inability of many families to rebuild viable and dignified lives. In November, the United Nations Development Programme reported that nine out of ten families in high-return areas were resorting to negative coping mechanisms, including skipping meals, falling into debt, or selling possessions to survive. Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities have criticized the mass expulsions, while international agencies continue to assess the broader humanitarian and regional implications of what UNHCR has described as one of the largest concentrated return movements in recent history.