Turkey is quietly preparing for a range of contingency scenarios involving Iran, including plans that could see Ankara seek to prevent large-scale population movements by acting beyond its own borders if the Iranian government were to fall, according to reporting by Middle East Eye (MEE). The deliberations underscore how regional instability, refugee management, and great-power tensions are increasingly intersecting in Ankara’s strategic calculations, particularly at a moment when Middle Eastern security dynamics are again drawing global attention.
Turkey’s Iran Border Strategy Reflects Deep Sensitivity to Refugee Pressures and Regional Instability
Senior officials from Turkey’s foreign ministry briefed lawmakers in a closed-door session at the Turkish parliament on Thursday, outlining preparations for several potential developments in Iran. Two participants in the meeting told MEE that officials discussed measures aimed at preventing another large influx of refugees into Turkey should conditions in Iran sharply deteriorate. One participant said officials used the term “buffer zone” to describe Ankara’s intent to ensure that any potential migration pressure is contained on the Iranian side of the border, while a second participant said the phrase itself was not explicitly used, though officials emphasized a willingness to go beyond standard border-control measures. The same briefing reportedly included figures circulated by Turkish officials suggesting that approximately 4,000 people had been killed and 20,000 wounded during recent protests in Iran, protests that were triggered by rapid inflation and a steep depreciation of Iran’s currency and were followed by a widespread internet blackout.
US Military Deployments, Iran Protests, and Turkey’s Regional Calculus
The contingency planning comes as Turkey continues to reinforce its 560-kilometer border with Iran. Earlier this month, the Turkish defense ministry said it had strengthened security through a technologically enhanced barrier system, including electro-optical towers, elevator-equipped towers, a modular concrete wall, and extensive defensive ditches, all monitored around the clock by drones and aircraft. At the same time, regional tensions have been heightened by a visible US military buildup in the Middle East, including the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in televised remarks on Friday that Ankara opposed any foreign intervention in Iran and urged the use of diplomatic channels. Turkish officials, shaped by the legacy of the 2003 Iraq invasion and the long Syrian conflict, remain acutely aware of how wars and regime-change operations have driven refugee flows that strain Turkey’s economy and society. With Turkish society already sensitive to the presence of refugees, and with millions of Syrians only now beginning to return home, Ankara’s reported planning reflects a determination to avoid repeating past experiences as uncertainty in Iran continues to command regional and international attention.