With the build up of tension between the war against Tehran, another twist to the geopolitical stage has been created with another diplomatic revelation. Donald Trump is also said to have declined a proposal that was made by Vladimir Putin which would have involved Iranian enriched uranium being transferred to Russia as part of a bigger deal that would have ended the current military confrontation between the United States and Israel and Iran.
Reportedly, Trump and Putin discussed this proposal during a phone call this week. The concept was said to be to take out Iranian stockpile of enriched uranium to Russia as a confidence-building move that could be useful in de-escalating the conflict. Nevertheless, Trump rejected the proposal, which demonstrated cynicism among Washington regarding the intentions of Moscow and the possibility of such an agreement.
This rejection is occurring at a time when there is an increasing speculation in Washington over the role of Russia in the conflict. In a more recent interview with Fox News host Brian Kilmeade, Trump admitted that Russia might also be helping Iran which seemed to be opposing previous statements of the U.S officials. Trump said he thinks that Putin might be assisting them somewhat. The remark marked a significant change of tone by the White House which had till then maintained that Moscow was not providing intelligence assistance to Tehran.
This week, the U.S. envoy to Middle East, Steve Witkoff, told me that the Russian officials had specifically denied providing any intelligence to Iran. Witkoff disclosed that he and the son-in-law of Trump Jared Kushner made a phone call to the Yuri Ushakov and the latter had assured them that Russia was not aiding Iran in its military or intelligence operations.
The White House other came out publicly on the issue. The press secretary, Karoline Leavitt informed the reporters that Washington had expressed its concerns to Moscow. She quoted Trump and Witkoff telling the Russian officials that in the case that there were any intelligence cooperation with Iran, the United States would treat it very negatively.
These promises notwithstanding, there is still a feeling of uncertainty regarding the true stance by Moscow over the conflict. Russia has been having diplomatic ties with Iran decades ago, and has been collaborating with Tehran on various issues including military technology and energy markets. Meanwhile, the Kremlin repeatedly attempted to depict itself as a facilitator in the crisis in the Middle East, setting Moscow as a second path to negotiations under the patronage of the West.
The suggestion that Putin made, to transfer enriched uranium to Iran in Russian territory, can be connected to the bigger picture. Hypothetically, this move might have been used as a control check by subjecting Iran to external authority in terms of managing its sensitive nuclear arsenal, but still be somewhat sovereign in controlling its program. The same arrangements have been raised in past international negotiations regarding the nuclear desires of Iran.
Nevertheless, there are some strategic questions also in the proposal. To Washington and its allies, giving nuclear fuel to Russia may be considered as swapping one strategic question with yet another one, owing to the growing hostile ties between Russia and the United States. It may have taken some sort of trust in Moscow to accept such a deal that is not presently present.
The political situation is also complicated with the geopolitical background. The war in Ukraine worsened relations of Russia with the West sharply and Moscow has been striving to deepen relations with non-Western partners as one of the many attempts to counter the influence of Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Iran is an important partner in that endeavor.
The energy markets are not an exception to the crisis. It has been reported that Russia would gain over 10 billion of extra oil and gas revenues as a result of recent policy changes by Washington on restrictions to purchase Russian crude that had been stranded at sea. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important maritime bottlenecks in the world, has been jeopardized by the conflict.
The strategic value of the strait can hardly be overestimated. It is a crucial route which transits a large percentage of world oil exports between the Persian Gulf and the world markets. Any disturbance in that may create ripple effects in the energy prices worldwide. After the escalation, oil prices shot above 120 per barrel and it was an indication that they were fearful that shipping through the region might be curtailed or even stopped.
In the case of Russia, increase in energy prices is a two sided result. Although disruptions pose a threat on the stability of the world, they also boost the revenues of the key oil exporters. This relationship has made certain analysts believe that Moscow will gain economically due to a long-term instability in the Middle East, despite an apparent demand to de-escalate it.
To Washington, the rejection of Putin proposal highlights how the administration is not keen on using Russia as a mediator in a conflict involving Iran. Any agreement to allow the involvement of Moscow in the control of nuclear materials in Iran would have substantially widened the Russian control in the Middle East security matters.
Meanwhile, Trump’s comments that Russia could be allied with Iran also serve to underline the fact that the war on the battlefield is becoming more of a central node due to the constantly growing number of alliances. His analogy (that Russia can act in the favor of Iran, whereas the United States is doing the same to help Ukraine) is a larger factual phenomenon of contemporary geopolitic competition when competing nations provide diplomatic assistance to the opposing political factions in local conflicts.
The episode conclusively displays how hard it is to seek diplomatic solutions in a situation of overlapping wars, strategic antagonisms, and energy politics. Although the suggestion made to transfer enriched uranium of Iran can be perceived as the step toward the de-escalation, its rejection confirms the high level of mistrust that characterizes the relations between the major powers at present.
With the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran still going on, it is not quite clear whether diplomacy can still make a significant contribution or not. The only thing that becomes evident is that all of the proposals, including the ones that are presented as a peace initiative, have been redirected through the wider scope of power struggle that exists globally.