The recent developments of the Middle East have placed Russia at the center of the increasing geopolitical discussion. Moscow accuses the United States and Israel of driving the region into an expansive war by assaulting Iran. In the meantime, the Western governments are worried that Russia can be secretly supplying Tehran, which will complicate military operations of the U.S. there.
The Foreign Ministry of Russia blamed U.S and Israeli attacks on Iranian targets terming them as an unprovable premeditated act of armed aggression against a sovereign state. Moscow was warning that such moves would lead to uncontrollable escalation and humanitarian disaster in the Middle East.
This is a rejection of the wider argument of Russia that the region is being destabilized by Washington and Tel Aviv. According to the policies of the U.S. reasoned by Russian officials, Iran is provoked, a broader war is possible, which can involve the Gulf states, disrupting world energy markets. The recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on the Gulf targets have increased the target of the spread of the conflict.
Its increase shocks the energy markets of the world. The Persian Gulf forms a significant energy route, and any of the major conflicts may cause disruptions to the oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. With the increasing tensions, markets become more sensitive to the happenings in the region.
There is also the indication that Russia might be providing intelligence data that can enable the Iranian authorities to locate U.S. military equipment in the Persian Gulf. U.S. intelligence reported the same, stating that Moscow has given information that might be used by the Iranians to target U.S. vessels and aircrafts in the Gulf.
The American officials play down this kind of reports arguing that the intelligence sharing has not had any observable impacts on the operations. However, the threat of Russian support to Iran has increased the concern in Washington and among the NATO allies.
Russia and Iran have grown closer to each other over the past years with both of them under the pressure of Western sanctions. They signed a strategic partnership and maintain close diplomatic contact even during the crisis. Moscow asserts that it keeps in touch with the Iranian leadership as things proceed.
The Kremlin has not made any commitment to intervene directly in the military in spite of cooperation. According to the Russian officials, Iran has not officially demanded assistance, the role of Moscow is mainly diplomatic.
Nevertheless, the Western analysts believe that Russia may still be able to assist Iran indirectly. Sharing of intelligence, military technology transfer and coordination might enhance the formidable forces of Iran without the entry of Russian forces in the confrontation.
The policy of Russia focuses on the asymmetric capabilities and not the massive deployments. High-tech air defense, electronic warfare, and long-range precision missiles allowed Russia to have its way without huge troops. Such a slight Russian presence in Syria changed the power dynamics.
Should the U.S and Israel adopt the same strategies in Iran, this would make things difficult to plan. Even the mildest kind of support, such as modernizing Iranian air defenses or surveillance, would make western forces act more cautiously.
The western governments are scrutinizing Moscow. Of concern is not only actual participation in the conflict, but the ability of Russia to influence the strategic landscape of the conflict.
In the opinion of Moscow, the account is different. According to Russian authorities, the crisis is a consequence of decades of unstableness due to military actions and geopolitical rivalry. They claim that the military pressure on Iran will lead to the rise of a bigger regional war among a number of states.
Russia has called on several occasions on diplomacy and negotiation to defuse the crisis. President Vladimir Putin urged an immediate cessation of hostilities and emphasized political solutions as compared to military build-up.
It is debated whether the diplomatic calls are a real mediating attempt or a practical attempt to strengthen the Russian influence. The obvious thing is that the struggle has emerged as a new field of rivalry between the world powers.
The proxy wars and alliances that have continuously changed Middle East have been long formed. Russia is gaining more importance as the U.S., Israel, and Iran tensions escalate.
Should Moscow extend its collaboration with Tehran, it is possible that the conflict will expand to a more geopolitical level among the world powers. Even a small level of intelligence/coordination may alter military calculations and extend the crisis.
At this point, Russia is a self-proclaimed critic of the Western intervention and a possible mediator. However, the growing Moscow-Tehran alliance indicates that the geopolitical environment in the Middle East is in a new phase of development; this is where world politics have a major influence in the development of conflicts in the region.