As Iraq’s prolonged government-formation process drags on, the emergence of former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as the leading contender to return to office has reopened unresolved debates about governance, regional alignment, and Iraq’s relationship with Washington, while also drawing unusually direct public warnings from former U.S. president Donald Trump.
Iraq government formation crisis reopens debate over Maliki legacy and US influence
Maliki, who served as Iraq’s prime minister from 2006 to 2014 and currently leads the Dawa party, was selected as the candidate of the Shiite Coordination Framework after Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani failed to form a new government following the November elections. The process remains incomplete after parliament postponed a vote to elect a new president, a role traditionally chosen by Kurdish parties and constitutionally tasked with nominating a prime ministerial candidate. With Maliki backed by the largest parliamentary bloc, his potential nomination has triggered concern in Washington, which maintains troops in Iraq and wields significant economic leverage. On his Truth Social account, Trump publicly characterized Maliki’s previous tenure as a period marked by disorder and warned that U.S. assistance to Iraq would cease if Maliki returned to power, framing American support as essential to Iraq’s future stability. Maliki responded on X by asserting that such statements undermined Iraq’s post-2003 democratic framework and emphasized that political engagement should be conducted through dialogue rather than threats. Analysts noted that the exchange underscored how Maliki’s possible return has elevated Iraq’s internal political contest into an international issue, with U.S. officials reportedly signaling discomfort over his ties to Iran-aligned paramilitary groups.
Sectarian memory, international pressure, and unresolved consensus inside Iraq
Supporters within the Coordination Framework have highlighted Maliki’s experience, noting that he remains the only Iraqi leader since 2003 to complete two full terms as prime minister and arguing that this record equips him to manage regional escalation and sensitive security files, including Islamic State detainees, according to Middle East Eye. Critics, however, have pointed to the legacy of his rule, including the 2014 collapse of Iraqi forces in Mosul and longstanding allegations of corruption and sectarian governance. The Iraqi Commission of Integrity has previously reported that hundreds of billions of dollars vanished from state coffers during his years in office. Journalists and political figures described that period as deeply damaging to public trust and civil freedoms, while researchers at Chatham House assessed that Maliki’s selection reflected elite bargaining within Shiite factions rather than broad popular sentiment. Sunni parties remain divided, with Taqadum announcing it would not join any government associated with renewed sectarian conflict, while the Azm Alliance has expressed support. Chatham House fellow Hayder al-Shakeri observed that Maliki commands numerical strength but lacks full consensus, a gap that complicates his path forward. With parliament yet to elect a president, Maliki’s return remains uncertain, but Trump’s intervention has added a volatile external dimension that could harden positions across Iraq’s fragmented political landscape.