Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on 19 January 2026 confirms that China’s population has contracted for the fourth consecutive year. The total population stood at 1.4049 billion at the year’s end, representing a decrease of 3.39 million from the 2024 figure of 1.4083 billion. This marks the steepest annual decline on record, excluding periods of famine.
The demographic contraction was driven by a deeply negative natural growth rate. Birth figures plunged by 17 per cent to 7.92 million—the lowest level since records began in 1949 resulting in a record-low birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000 people. Conversely, the death rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000, with total deaths reaching 11.31 million, the highest figure since 1968. Demographers, including Yi Fuxian, have highlighted the severity of this shift, noting that birth numbers in 2025 have effectively reverted to levels seen in 1738, when the total population was merely 150 million.
Drivers of Demographic Shift and Policy Response
The sharp downturn is primarily attributed to shifting social attitudes and economic pressures. High living costs, expensive childcare, and career pressures particularly on women have fuelled a reluctance amongst young people to marry and start families. Although urbanization reached 68 per cent in 2025 (up from 43 per cent in 2005), this trend has further delayed family formation. While marriage registrations saw a policy-driven rebound in 2025 (rising 22.5 per cent in Q3), this followed a historic low of 6.106 million in 2024.
In response, Beijing has accelerated pronatalist interventions. Measures include a national childcare subsidy of up to 10,800 yuan (approx. $1,534) for children under three, full reimbursement of childbirth costs (including IVF), and streamlined marriage registration processes. Despite these efforts, the fertility rate hovers around 1.0, well below the replacement level of 2.1. The crisis is compounded by an aging workforce; the over-60 demographic now constitutes roughly 23 per cent of the population (c. 320–330 million) and is projected to reach 400 million by 2035, intensifying pressure on pension systems and labour supply.
Historical Context: From Boom to Contraction
China’s demographic trajectory has undergone a radical transformation over the last century. Between 1949 and the late 1970s, the population surged from roughly 542 million to over 1 billion, driven by high birth rates and falling mortality. This expansion was curbed by the strict “one-child policy” (1980–2015), which inadvertently created a “demographic time bomb” characterized by gender imbalances and a shrinking workforce.
Although the government introduced a two-child policy in 2016 and a three-child policy in 2021, the impact has been limited. Births peaked at 17.9 million in 2016 before halving in under a decade. The population officially peaked at circa 1.412 billion in 2021 before entering decline in 2022 , first such contraction since the Great Famine of the 1960s. Current UN projections warn that without significant intervention, China’s population could fall to between 639 and 800 million by 2100.