For the first time in five years, the trade engine between Moscow and Beijing has actually started to lose steam. Fresh data from China’s customs office shows that bilateral trade fell nearly 7% in 2025, dropping to $228 billion from the record highs we saw in 2024. While the two nations still talk a big game about their “no limits” partnership, the reality on the ground is that falling oil prices and a massive drop in car sales are starting to bite.
Why the Numbers Are Dropping
The biggest drag on these figures came from the automotive sector. Chinese car exports to Russia, which had basically replaced Western brands after 2022 plummeted by 46% for most of last year. It is not that Russians stopped wanting cars; it is that the Kremlin’s efforts to cool down inflation and a weaker ruble made those Chinese imports way more expensive for the average buyer.
On the flip side, the value of what Russia sells to China also took a hit. Since oil makes up the bulk of Russia’s exports to Beijing, the global drop in crude prices meant that even if the volume of oil stayed the same, the total “paycheck” Moscow received was smaller. It’s a double-sided squeeze that hasn’t happened since the pandemic.
The Trump and Venezuela Factor
While the annual numbers look grim, there is a new layer of geopolitical tension making Beijing nervous. With the U.S. moving to stabilize Venezuela’s oil fields and the Trump administration threatening 500% tariffs on countries that “knowingly” bankroll Moscow’s war machine, China is walking a very thin line.
Beijing’s global trade actually hit a record $6.48 trillion last year, proving they are still a global powerhouse. But they are increasingly wary of “secondary sanctions.” If Washington starts linking access to the U.S. market with a total ban on Russian oil, China might have to decide if the discounted Russian crude is worth the risk of losing their $1.2 trillion trade surplus.
Despite the yearly slump, December 2025 showed a surprising late-year surge, with imports from Russia jumping 17%. This suggests that the relationship isn’t breaking; it’s just recalibrating. The real test for 2026 will be whether China’s private refiners keep snapping up Russian oil or if they start pivoting toward the newly available Venezuelan supplies to keep Washington off their backs. For now, the “no limits” bond is facing its first real economic reality check.