For years, the debate in geopolitical circles has revolved around a central question: Is Moscow acting out of defensive paranoia over NATO, or offensive imperial ambition? The answer, according to new analysis of the occupied territories, lies not in diplomatic cables but in the brutal administrative reality of the land Russia currently holds. The governance style in the “new territories” suggests a systematic erasure of identity that has nothing to do with security buffers and everything to do with colonial absorption.
Let’s look at the history books. Realists love to claim this war is just about Moscow needing a “safe space” from NATO, but the timeline suggests otherwise. For about three hundred years, Russia just kept taking land, roughly 50,000 square kilometers a year. That’s not what defense looks like. That’s what appetite looks like. That expansionist habit seems to be the real engine behind this war, not a sudden fear of Western alliances. Vladimir Putin’s own rhetoric, invoking figures like Peter the Great rather than modern strategists, frames the invasion not as a geopolitical necessity, but as a historical “reclamation” of lands he claims never truly existed as sovereign states.
The Reality of the Occupation
The strongest evidence for this imperial intent is found in the “arc of control” stretching from Crimea to the Donbas. In this 20 percent of Ukraine, the occupation regime has implemented what human rights monitors describe as a total erasure of local identity. We are seeing a complete ban on the Ukrainian language in schools, forced passportization, and the abduction of nearly 20,000 children. This isn’t just martial law; it is a demographic re-engineering project. The Freedom in the World Index has rated these territories a “negative one” out of 100, ranking them below even North Korea and Gaza in terms of civil liberties.
The Logic of Erasure
This administrative cruelty serves a specific purpose. By eliminating Ukrainian textbooks, imposing the Russian curriculum, and conducting “human safaris” to hunt civilians with drones in places like Kherson, Moscow is signaling that this territory is not a bargaining chip. It is a possession. Legal scholars and parliaments, including Canada’s, have increasingly argued that these actions meet the criteria for genocide — specifically the “intent to destroy” a national group in part or in whole.
Walking away simply isn’t an option for Putin anymore. It’s not even about the land map; it’s about his own survival. He has staked his entire legacy on this specific “gathering of lands.” If he backs down now, the whole “strongman” image he’s been building, the one meant to put him in the same league as the tsars, collapses. And that’s why this war keeps dragging on. For him, Ukraine isn’t just strategy anymore. It’s personal, almost spiritual mission.