China successfully met its annual economic targets in 2025, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a 5 per cent expansion in GDP on 18 January 2026. The total economic output climbed to a record high of 140.19 trillion yuan approximately $20.13 trillion breaching the 140-trillion-yuan threshold for the very first time. This growth rate aligns precisely with the state’s goal of “around 5 per cent”
NBS’ Announcement and Key Economic Drivers
A robust export sector was a primary engine of this growth, successfully counterbalancing weaknesses in other areas. Net exports were responsible for nearly one-third of the total GDP expansion, with total trade in goods climbing by 3.8 per cent to 45.47 trillion yuan, resulting in a record trade surplus. Although exports to the United States contracted by 20 per cent, this was mitigated by successful diversification into other regions, such as ASEAN. Domestic consumption remained a cornerstone of the economy, contributing 52 per cent to the expansion; retail sales increased by 3.7 per cent to 50.12 trillion yuan, bolstered significantly by online sales (+8.6 per cent) and the services sector (+5.5 per cent).
In terms of sectoral performance, the tertiary industry grew by 5.4 per cent, reaching 80.89 trillion yuan and accounting for 60.2 per cent of overall growth. This was largely driven by the IT sector, which saw an 11.1 per cent rise, and transportation, which grew by 6.4 per cent. Industrial output also saw a healthy increase of 5.9 per cent, with high-tech manufacturing surging by 9.4 per cent. Conversely, the property sector proved a significant drag on the economy; fixed-asset investment fell by 3.8 per cent, pulled down by a sharp 17.2 per cent plunge in property development.
NBS official Kang Yi highlighted the intensifying external challenges while noting the steady progress made. However, analysts point out that nominal GDP growth stood at approximately 4.0 per cent—the slowest rate since 1976, excluding the 2020 pandemic year. Looking forward, policymakers have pledged proactive interventions to stimulate demand, with growth forecasts for 2026 currently set between 4.5 and 4.8 per cent.
Economic resilience was tested by several factors, ranging from a sustained crisis in the real estate sector and deflation to weak domestic demand and intensifying trade disputes with the US administration. These stressors contributed to a quarterly decline in momentum. Growth tapered from 5.4 per cent in Q1 and 5.2 per cent in Q2 to 4.8 per cent in Q3. The year concluded with fourth-quarter growth of 4.5 per cent year-on-year the slowest expansion since early 2023 and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 1.2 per cent.