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Despite sweeping Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s federal budget remained propped up by soaring energy revenues in the first four months of 2023, according to new data released by the Ministry of Finance.
Oil and gas revenues surged by 82.2% year-over-year to 4.157 trillion rubles ($45 billion) from January through April, the ministry reported. The windfall from Russia’s pivotal energy exports helped offset a 0.8% budget deficit of 1.484 trillion rubles ($16 billion) during that period.
Russia has faced economic turbulence from sanctions aimed at crippling its ability to wage war in Ukraine. However, the latest figures show the budget buffer provided by oil and natural gas sales, with revenues from other sectors up 36.8% to 7.526 trillion rubles ($82 billion).
Despite being largely shut out of Western markets, Russia has been able to sell its energy exports to countries like China and India at elevated prices amid the upheaval of war in Ukraine. Critics say this lifeline has allowed President Vladimir Putin to sustain his military campaign.
The energy revenue surge represents a mixed blessing for Russia, as sanctions and corporate exodus have squeezed other economic sectors. The World Bank projects Russia’s GDP will contract by 3.3% in 2023 amid the fallout.
However, the budget figures illustrate how Russia’s fossil fuel leverage has protected Putin’s government from even deeper economic trauma so far.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged the elevated energy receipts but warned that uncertainties remain, including over the price cap imposed on Russian oil by Western countries.
The coming months will test whether Russia’s energy export earnings can continue to fill gaps elsewhere, or if budget pressures may eventually force harder economic and military choices on the Kremlin.