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Shigeru Ishiba, a former Defense Minister, faces significant unpopularity among his colleagues in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), despite his favorable standing with the general public and local party chapters. As he embarks on his fifth bid for the LDP presidency, his struggles to garner support highlight a complex relationship with his party.
Ishiba has a long history of being a vocal critic of the LDP, earning him a reputation as a turncoat among lawmakers. His most notable act of defiance came in 1993 when he supported a no-confidence vote against then-Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa. This move, along with his departure from the LDP to join a reformist faction led by Ichiro Ozawa, has left a lasting stain on his reputation within the party. Political science professor Yu Uchiyama notes that this history fuels perceptions of Ishiba as a “traitor” among senior politicians.
His previous presidential campaigns have resulted in notable defeats, primarily attributed to his contentious relationships within the LDP. In 2008, he lost to Taro Aso, despite being appointed agriculture minister shortly thereafter. He faced further setbacks in subsequent elections, notably in 2012 and 2018, where he was decisively defeated by Shinzo Abe. Ishiba’s critical stance towards Abe and the latter’s administration alienated many junior members who regard Abe as a mentor.
Moreover, Ishiba’s recent remarks urging Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to resign amid a slush funds scandal intensified backlash from fellow lawmakers, further isolating him. His acknowledgment of his strained relationships reflects a level of awareness regarding his precarious position within the party.
Despite this, Ishiba retains significant public appeal, especially in rural areas. Recent polls indicate he has strong backing among local LDP chapters, where his commitment to regional revitalization resonates well. His proposals for economic development outside of Tokyo have won him support, particularly among constituents eager for change.
However, the LDP’s leadership will ultimately hinge on the votes of its lawmakers. While Ishiba’s rural roots and populist message may garner public favor, his history and outspoken nature continue to hinder his quest for leadership within the party. As he seeks to consolidate support ahead of the presidential election, Ishiba must navigate these complex dynamics to transform public backing into tangible political capital.