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The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a stern warning against earthquake prediction hoaxes, urging the public to focus on practical disaster prevention measures rather than speculative forecasts. This advisory comes in the wake of heightened seismic activity, including a recent magnitude-7.1 earthquake in the Hyuganada Sea, which is part of the Nankai Trough region.
Current scientific capabilities do not support accurate predictions of earthquakes in terms of specific locations or dates. The advisory related to the Nankai Trough Earthquake, issued based on statistical probabilities, highlights the limitations of earthquake prediction. Historical data reveals that, from 1904 to 2014, there were 1,437 earthquakes globally with magnitudes of 7 or greater. Of these, only six subsequent quakes of magnitude 7.8 or higher occurred within 50 kilometers of the epicenter of the first quake within a week.
Recent events, including the magnitude-7.1 quake, have led the JMA to acknowledge an increased likelihood of a megaquake in the region compared to normal conditions. However, the agency emphasizes the inherent difficulty in predicting such events with precision. The JMA cites past failures, such as the inability to foresee the magnitude-9 Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011, despite the prior occurrence of a magnitude-7.3 quake off the Sanriku coast. This led to a policy shift in 2017, focusing on issuing alerts after significant seismic events rather than attempting precise predictions.
The JMA’s statement underscores that claims of specific earthquake forecasts, such as those predicting dates, times, and locations, are unfounded and should be regarded as hoaxes. The agency also debunks the idea of “earthquake clouds” and the purported predictive abilities of animals and plants, highlighting that there is no scientific basis for these claims.
Kiyoshi Takeda, head of the JMA’s Office of Large-scale Earthquake Analysis, has called on the public to be wary of misinformation circulating on social media and to prioritize solid disaster preparedness measures. The JMA’s message is clear: while the risk of earthquakes remains, focusing on reliable preparedness and response strategies is the most effective approach to mitigating potential damage and ensuring public safety.