Image Credits: The Japan News
Japan faces heightened alerts from the Japan Meteorological Agency regarding potential megathrust earthquakes, the urgent challenge of evacuating elderly and disabled residents has come into sharp focus. The advisory has intensified concerns, especially in coastal areas where tsunamis of up to 15 meters are predicted, underscoring the need for swift and effective evacuation plans.
In Nakatosa, Kochi Prefecture, the situation is particularly dire. Kohei Kiyooka, 39, a disaster prevention staffer at a local nursing home, described the heightened urgency following the recent advisory. With many residents reliant on wheelchairs or bedridden, the absence of nearby high ground adds to the urgency. Kiyooka has proactively secured seven “tsunami lifeboats” from the town—each capable of carrying 20 people—as a contingency measure. Despite these preparations, the challenge remains in securing alternative accommodation and ensuring timely evacuation. “We urgently need to discuss with the prefectural and central governments about securing alternative shelters,” Kiyooka emphasized.
The immediate aftermath of a Nankai Trough quake could see tsunamis reaching some areas in mere minutes, making rapid evacuation crucial. According to Professor Yasuhiro Yuuki of Shukutoku University, based on experiences from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the evacuation of elderly and hospitalized individuals requires substantial manpower. Effective coordination with local residents and neighboring facilities is vital to overcome the limitations of current staffing.
In addition to institutional challenges, home-bound elderly and disabled residents face significant evacuation hurdles. Local governments are mandated to create “individual evacuation plans” for such individuals. As of October 2023, roughly 85% of local governments have started formulating these plans, but only about 9% have completed them, largely due to staffing shortages.
In Miyazaki City, Mayumi Akanegakubo, chairperson of a local community association, has been actively engaging with elderly residents to ensure they are aware of their evacuation routes. “It’s crucial for individuals to take proactive steps to protect their own lives,” Akanegakubo stressed.
The effectiveness of advisories like the Megathrust Earthquake Alert, which advises preemptive action if evacuation becomes impossible, is also under scrutiny. In Niijima Village, Tokyo, where a 27-meter tsunami is projected, local officials have faced resistance from residents who are hesitant to evacuate. The village’s civil affairs chief acknowledged the need for improved communication strategies to ensure higher compliance with evacuation recommendations.
As the risk of a catastrophic tsunami looms, the coordination between local governments, facilities, and communities will be key in safeguarding the most vulnerable populations.