XRP is once again under the microscope as new on-chain data reveals a market structure that closely mirrors conditions seen in early 2022, a period that preceded a long and painful downturn. While prices today are far higher than they were back then, analysts warn that the behavior of holders, not just price, is what truly matters.
The latest data suggests XRP is caught in a fragile equilibrium, where short-term buyers are cautiously in profit, but longer-term holders remain under strain.
Cost basis gap raises red flags
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted a growing divergence in XRP’s cost basis. Investors who entered the market within the last week to one month have a lower average entry price compared to those who bought between six and twelve months ago.
This imbalance creates a subtle but powerful dynamic. Recent buyers are sitting on unrealized gains, while longer-term holders remain underwater. When price momentum slows, this often encourages older investors to sell into even modest rallies, rather than increasing their exposure.
Over time, this behavior can build heavy overhead supply, making sustained upward moves increasingly difficult.
Why early 2022 keeps coming up
The comparison to February 2022 is not about price levels, but psychology. Back then, XRP traded near $0.80, yet the market showed a similar split. New buyers had better entry prices, while earlier holders were stuck at losses.
That imbalance eventually led to a sharp decline, with XRP sliding toward $0.30 over the following months.
While today’s XRP trades at a much higher absolute value, analysts caution that the underlying holder dynamics look strikingly familiar. History may not repeat exactly, but patterns in investor behavior often rhyme.
$2 becomes the line in the sand
XRP’s struggle around the $2 mark has become one of the most telling features of its current market structure. According to Glassnode, every major retest of this level since mid-2025 has coincided with $500 million to $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses.
This suggests that many holders are using rallies near $2 as an exit point, rather than viewing the level as a place to accumulate. As long as price remains below this zone, pressure continues to build among investors waiting to break even.
Meanwhile, short-term traders tend to step in at lower prices, creating a constant tug-of-war between fresh demand and lingering supply.
Technical picture adds to the caution
From a charting perspective, XRP’s structure remains vulnerable. After rallying from $1.78 in December to a January peak near $2.44, the token quickly surrendered much of those gains.
Currently, XRP is trading below all its major moving averages. The 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages all sit above the current price, reinforcing a bearish technical bias.
Adding to the challenge is a long-term descending trendline drawn from the July high near $3.66. This resistance zone, currently around $2.6 to $2.7, has repeatedly capped upside attempts and remains a major hurdle for bulls.
Market sentiment remains split
Social sentiment around XRP reflects this uncertainty. Some investors view the current range as a long-term accumulation zone, citing broader adoption narratives and regulatory progress. Others see the repeated failures near $2 as a sign that distribution is still ongoing.
This split mirrors the on-chain data: cautious optimism from newer participants, and growing fatigue among longer-term holders.
Where XRP goes from here
At this stage, XRP is not showing definitive signs of an imminent collapse. However, the market remains vulnerable as long as the cost-basis gap between short-term and long-term holders persists.
A sustained surge in demand would be needed to absorb existing supply and shift sentiment decisively. Without it, prolonged consolidation or gradual downside pressure remains a real risk.
XRP now sits at a crossroads. Whether it breaks free or sinks deeper into stagnation will depend less on headlines and more on whether buyers can overpower the weight of history pressing down on the chart.
