Ahead of Taiwan\u2019s presidential and legislative elections on January 13, China began increasing pressure on the island by doubling down on the rhetoric that reunification with China is inevitable and conducting military manoeuvres in areas around Taiwan, Voice of America reported on Wednesday. Some analysts say China\u2019s efforts to ratchet up pressure on Taiwan reflect Beijing\u2019s longstanding tactics.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith every election and every period between elections, Beijing uses a combination of carrots and sticks to both woo and coerce the people in Taiwan,\u201d J. Michael Cole, senior adviser on Countering Foreign Authoritarian Influence with the International Republican Institute in Taiwan, told VOA in a written response. In his view, Beijing will adjust the intensity of its strategies to fit the conditions in Taiwan.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith [opposition candidates] vocal in their rhetoric that a vote for [the ruling Democratic Progressive Party\u2019s presidential candidate Lai Ching-te is tantamount to a vote for war, it is no surprise that Beijing would weigh in with highly visible reminders of what it can do kinetically,\u201d Cole added. During his New Year\u2019s address, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated that Taiwan and China will surely be reunited.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,\u201d he said. VOA reported that in addition to the warning from Xi, the Taiwan Affairs Office, which oversees cross-strait relations in Beijing, also called on Taiwanese people to promote \u201cpeaceful unification,\u201d saying it\u2019s the common desire of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe firmly believe that as long as compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are united and join hands, we will be able to create a better future for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and we will be able to accomplish the great cause of reunification of the motherland,\u201d Song Tao, the head of the Taiwan Affairs Office, said in his new year message released Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Cole in Taipei said Beijing wants to underscore the inevitability of the reunification between Taiwan and China and further constrain Taiwanese people\u2019s choices. \u201cBeijing\u2019s messaging on the unification question is contingent on its reading of the mood in Taiwan and what tactical advantages it thinks it may have,\u201d he told VOA.<\/p>\n
Apart from repeating and emphasising the rhetoric of reunification, China continues to conduct gray zone operations around Taiwan, deploying military aircraft, naval vessels, tugboats, and balloons near the island. Gray zone operations refer to the use of military and non-military offensive tactics to intimidate or coerce. According to Taiwan\u2019s Ministry of National Defense, China has sent dozens of military aircraft and naval vessels near Taiwan.<\/p>\n
In addition, Taiwan\u2019s defense ministry detected at least six Chinese balloons since Jan. 1 that have crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, with four flying directly above Taiwan. Some experts say the deployment of balloons is a relatively new gray zone tactic that China has adopted since last month.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe deployment of balloons is an intentional move by Beijing to influence Taiwanese voters and showcase their capabilities to intrude Taiwan\u2019s airspace,\u201d Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at the Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told VOA by phone. Su said the defense ministry\u2019s information shows that the Chinese balloons generally operate between 12,000 feet to 20,000 feet, approximately the same height as civilian airplanes.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a potential flight safety problem and this shows that Beijing\u2019s approach is irresponsible,\u201d he said. Taiwan\u2019s coast guard also drove away four Chinese tugboats that were sailing about four nautical miles off the island\u2019s southern coast on Tuesday. While China\u2019s intimidation campaigns have traditionally resulted in election outcomes viewed as unfavourable by Beijing, some experts say Chinese authorities are still trying to test whether its influence campaigns can lead more Taiwanese voters preferring peace across the Taiwan Strait to come out and vote for candidates favouring closer ties with China.<\/p>\n
\u201cBeijing has noticed that Taiwan\u2019s 2024 election campaign has focused on corruption scandals rather than cross-strait relations, so they may think if they further increase the pressure on Taiwan, they may at least prevent the ruling Democratic Progressive Party from securing a majority in the legislature, which would be a favourable outcome for the Chinese government,\u201d Yao-Yuan Yeh, a political scientist at the University of St. Thomas in Texas, told VOA by phone. Facing the wide range of Chinese attempts to influence Taiwan\u2019s election, Taiwanese officials continue to highlight and expose Beijing\u2019s efforts, hoping to maintain public awareness.<\/p>\n
Despite these efforts, Yeh in Texas said that message may be overshadowed by other information related to the election. \u201c[One possible scenario] is that Taiwanese people will be aware of China\u2019s intimidation campaign but they probably won\u2019t track the development of the campaign,\u201d he told VOA, adding that it could desensitize Taiwanese people from threats posed by China in the long run. \u201cThis would be the goal that China has long been hoping to achieve,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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