Americans are already feeling the effects of the war in Iran at the pump. Average U.S. gasoline prices have climbed past $4 a gallon, the highest since 2022, driven largely by disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the ongoing conflict, analysts say.<\/p>\n
Major institutions like JPMorgan now warn that gas prices could exceed $5 per gallon in April and into the summer if the standoff over Hormuz continues and oil supply remains constrained.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how the timeline of events and their impact could play out if the impasse persists.<\/p>\n
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The conflict began in late February, and within weeks, Iran\u2019s actions and targeted strikes on shipping effectively brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 a route for about 20\u202f% of global oil and LNG, close to a standstill.<\/p>\n
In March, global oil prices surged. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude neared and held above $110 a barrel, with Brent also climbing well past $100.<\/p>\n
Disruptions in the strait caused a massive risk premium to be priced into oil markets, even before physical shortages materialized, since tanker insurance costs skyrocketed and shipping patterns were rerouted.<\/p>\n
By early April, the U.S. national average for gasoline had climbed to around $4.12 a gallon, putting pressure on household budgets and inflation.<\/p>\n
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Financial firms expect more pain ahead. JPMorgan analysts say that if the conflict stretches into late April and oil exports through Hormuz do not resume, U.S. gas prices could climb above $5 a gallon, driven by continued crude price strength and persistent supply risk.<\/p>\n
This forecast assumes Brent and WTI remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and reduced effective throughput from Persian Gulf producers.<\/p>\n
In parts of the country like California, where fuel costs are already higher than the national average, prices nearing $6 a gallon are not out of the question if the global supply shock deepens.<\/p>\n
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How the situation unfolds in the coming weeks is critical:<\/p>\n
Energy forecasts suggest that even if traffic resumes, damage to production infrastructure and logistical bottlenecks could keep upward price pressure through the spring and early summer.<\/p>\n
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High fuel prices do more than just hit drivers. Elevated oil and gas costs feed into inflation in food, transportation, and manufactured goods, since crude is a key input for fertilisers and chemical production.<\/p>\n
Prolonged elevated energy costs could strain household budgets and keep inflation above target levels, complicating economic policy decisions.<\/p>\n
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The Strait of Hormuz is narrow, just 21 miles at its tightest point, yet it carries an enormous share of the world\u2019s energy supplies. Disruptions there directly affect crude supply expectations globally.<\/p>\n
Even partial closures or perceived risk can push prices higher because markets price in risk premiums long before physical shortages occur.<\/p>\n
If the situation remains unresolved or escalates further, analysts warn that current forecasts, including the possibility of gas exceeding $5 per gallon, could be conservative relative to worst\u2011case supply shock scenarios.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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