{"id":109999,"date":"2026-02-18T11:12:15","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T16:12:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/?p=109999"},"modified":"2026-02-18T11:12:15","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T16:12:15","slug":"canadian-exports-likely-safe-despite-u-s-trade-worries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/canadian-exports-likely-safe-despite-u-s-trade-worries\/109999\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian exports likely safe despite U.S. trade worries"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"flex flex-col text-sm pb-25\">\n<article class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none [--shadow-height:45px] has-data-writing-block:pointer-events-none has-data-writing-block:-mt-(--shadow-height) has-data-writing-block:pt-(--shadow-height) [&:has([data-writing-block])>*]:pointer-events-auto scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" data-turn-id=\"request-WEB:e7370f63-3bef-4d7b-9007-421bfa55bd24-29\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-8\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:--spacing(4)] @w-sm\/main:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(6)] @w-lg\/main:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(16)] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] @w-lg\/main:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\">\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col grow\">\n<div class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal [.text-message+&]:mt-1\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"a22e22c8-d15a-47ca-8497-a43c3b1b639a\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5-mini\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[1px]\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert w-full wrap-break-word dark markdown-new-styling\">\n<p data-start=\"59\" data-end=\"311\">CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld believes Canadian exports will likely keep their duty-free status even as Washington ramps up trade talk. He says most goods heading to the U.S. should avoid new tariffs, forming the basis of the bank\u2019s economic outlook.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"313\" data-end=\"521\">Shenfeld points out that the current tension is similar to the earlier USMCA negotiations. He notes that public complaints from the White House are familiar and shouldn\u2019t be taken as a sign of real changes.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"523\" data-end=\"716\">The USMCA agreement has legal mechanisms that support a stable outlook for Canada. Even if a review doesn\u2019t give clear results, the deal is expected to stay in place until it expires in 2036.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"718\" data-end=\"954\">Political pressures in the U.S. also make it unlikely that the government will take extreme measures. Shenfeld mentions that business groups in the U.S. support extending the trade deal, which adds weight to keeping tariffs unchanged.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"956\" data-end=\"1125\">Investor behavior reflects this confidence. Markets are pricing in an unchanged Canadian interest rate for the year, suggesting they don\u2019t expect a big trade conflict.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1127\" data-end=\"1360\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Still, Shenfeld warns that the ongoing threats of withdrawal create uncertainty. While exports may continue to grow, these doubts could hold back investment in Canada\u2019s industrial sector and slow the expansion of production capacity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"z-0 flex min-h-[46px] justify-start\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"mt-3 w-full empty:hidden\">\n<div class=\"text-center\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pointer-events-none h-px w-px absolute bottom-0\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-edge=\"true\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld believes Canadian exports will likely keep their duty-free status even as Washington ramps up trade talk\u2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":294,"featured_media":110000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[35461],"class_list":["post-109999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-markets","tag-cibc"],"reading_time":"2 min read","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/294"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109999"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109999\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":110001,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109999\/revisions\/110001"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.businessupturn.com\/usa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}