Oil prices steadied on Monday following strong gains last week, as markets weighed escalating unrest in Iran against signals that Venezuelan oil exports could resume. Brent and WTI futures remained near recent highs, reflecting caution among traders amid competing supply factors.
Both benchmarks had risen more than 3% last week, marking their strongest weekly performance since October.
Brent oil price and WTI price today
In early trading, Brent crude futures for March delivery edged slightly lower to $63.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude slipped to $58.87 per barrel. The modest movement followed last week’s rally, as investors refrained from taking aggressive new positions.
Market participants continued to assess whether geopolitical developments would translate into actual supply disruptions.
Iran oil supply risk
Focus remains firmly on Iran, where intensifying anti-government protests have raised concerns over potential supply disruptions from one of OPEC’s key producers. More than 500 people have reportedly been killed in the unrest, heightening fears of broader instability.
Iranian officials warned that U.S. military bases in the region could be targeted if Washington intervenes, raising the risk of a wider confrontation. Any disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global supply route, would have significant implications for crude markets.
Analysts note that Iran produces around 3.2 million barrels per day, leaving a meaningful amount of supply at risk if tensions escalate further.
Venezuela’s oil export outlook
Oil price gains were limited by expectations that Venezuelan crude could return to the market. U.S. officials have signalled that restrictions on Venezuela’s oil sector may be eased, potentially allowing sanctioned barrels to be sold.
Plans under discussion could result in tens of millions of barrels entering global supply chains, easing some of the tightness caused by geopolitical risks elsewhere. However, major oil companies remain cautious about re-entering the country without clearer legal and political protections.
Russia supply and sanctions risk
Investors are also monitoring developments in Russia, where ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure linked to the Ukraine conflict have raised concerns about potential supply interruptions. At the same time, the possibility of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports continues to add uncertainty to the outlook.
These risks have helped support crude prices, even as longer-term supply forecasts point toward surplus conditions.
Oil price forecast 2026
Looking ahead, analysts expect oil prices to face downward pressure as global supply growth outpaces demand. Forecasts indicate that rising inventories could lead to lower average prices in 2026 unless major disruptions occur or production cuts are introduced.
While geopolitical risks tied to Iran, Venezuela and Russia are likely to keep volatility elevated, expectations of a supply surplus continue to cap sustained price upside.
