Weight loss drugs are changing how Americans look. Now Wall Street thinks they could also change how airlines make money.
As more people lose weight, planes may become lighter. Lighter planes burn less fuel. Fuel is one of the biggest costs for airlines. Even small savings can make a big difference.
Analysts at Jefferies say this trend could quietly help airline profits. They believe widespread use of obesity drugs could lower average passenger weight over time. That would improve fuel efficiency across thousands of flights.
Airlines already care deeply about weight. They have cut ounces wherever possible for years. Even small things matter. Lighter paper. Fewer olives. Smaller items add up when planes fly nonstop.
Jefferies estimates that if average passenger weight drops by 10 percent, the total weight of an aircraft could fall by about 2 percent. That alone could cut fuel costs by up to 1.5 percent. Earnings per share could rise by as much as 4 percent for major carriers.
The firms that could benefit the most include American Airlines, Delta, United, and Southwest. Together, these airlines are expected to burn around 16 billion gallons of fuel this year. The average cost is about $2.41 per gallon. That puts their total fuel bill close to $39 billion.
Fuel accounts for roughly 19 percent of airline operating expenses. So any reduction matters. Jefferies estimates earnings could rise by about 2.8 percent for Delta, 3.5 percent for United, 4.2 percent for Southwest, and as much as 11.7 percent for American Airlines. American stands out because its profits are more sensitive to fuel costs.
Aircraft makers like Boeing often explain why weight matters so much. Every plane has a fixed empty weight. The remaining limit is shared between fuel, passengers, luggage, and cargo.
Take the Boeing 737 Max 8 as an example. The plane weighs about 99,000 pounds before passengers and fuel. It can carry around 46,000 pounds of fuel and about 36,000 pounds of passengers and cargo combined.
On a typical flight with 178 passengers weighing an average of 180 pounds, passengers alone add around 32,000 pounds. If average passenger weight falls by 10 percent, that load drops by about 3,200 pounds. That is nearly 2 percent of the plane’s maximum takeoff weight.
Multiply that saving across thousands of flights every year. The fuel savings start to look very real.
Airlines have chased weight savings for decades. In 2018, United Airlines switched to lighter paper for its in flight magazine. That single change saved about 170,000 gallons of fuel per year. At the time, that was worth nearly $290,000.
Analysts now believe weight loss drugs could have a far bigger impact than these small tweaks.
The shift is being driven by the fast growth of GLP 1 weight loss drugs. Novo Nordisk recently launched a pill version of its obesity drug in the US. It costs less than injectable versions. Eli Lilly is expected to release a similar pill soon.
Pills remove the fear and inconvenience of injections. That could bring in many first time users.
Around 1 in 3 US adults, or about 100 million people, meet the medical definition of obesity. Globally, the number is close to 900 million. Morgan Stanley estimates that about 11 percent of eligible people worldwide could eventually use these drugs.
The bank expects the weight loss drug market to grow to $150 billion by 2035. It was just $15 billion in 2024.
That growth may reshape more than healthcare. It could also quietly change the economics of flying.
