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Toncoin recently broke out of a long-term descending resistance line, but the upward move did not last. The price gained some bullish momentum after reclaiming the $2.85 support level in July. This came after briefly falling below it earlier. On July 14, the breakout from the descending trend line gave traders some hope. The rally reached a high of $3.69 by July 31. However, the price failed to stay above that level.
Toncoin quickly fell back below the $3.50 mark. This level has acted as strong resistance since April. A long upper wick formed on the chart, showing that sellers were active at higher prices. The rejection from this range high signals that the bullish move may have been short-lived.
Technical indicators support this idea. The daily chart shows a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index. This means that while the price moved up, the strength behind the move weakened. This often leads to a pullback, and Toncoin is already showing signs of one. The chart suggests that the price could fall back toward the bottom of its trading range.
The weekly chart also does not look very optimistic. Toncoin is still in a downward trend that began in June 2024. The current movement is part of a wave four correction, which has formed a symmetrical triangle. This pattern is common during pauses in a downtrend but usually ends with a continuation of the decline.
This means Toncoin might continue trading sideways for a while. But if the pattern plays out, the price could eventually break down. If that happens, it may drop as low as $1.28 before finding a bottom.
The recent breakout looked like a turning point at first. But Toncoin’s failure to stay above $3.50 and the weakness shown by the RSI suggest that the rally might have come too early. Until the price breaks through the resistance and holds above it, the overall trend remains bearish. More downside is still likely in the short to medium term.