Analysts at Susquehanna are feeling much more confident about Samsung Electronics. At the same time, they are growing cautious on SK Hynix.
The main reason is capacity. Samsung has more room to grow just as AI demand for memory is set to explode. Its DRAM business, which is the company’s biggest division, has finally stabilized production at its advanced 1c-node process. That was a key hurdle. With that issue easing, Samsung now looks better prepared for the next phase of AI-driven growth.
Because of this, Susquehanna upgraded Samsung’s stock to Positive. They also raised their earnings estimates. The firm believes Samsung will benefit more as high-bandwidth memory demand rises.
On the flip side, Susquehanna downgraded SK Hynix. The analysts think Samsung’s gains will likely come directly at Hynix’s expense. SK Hynix stock already reflects much of the good news. There is now more downside risk. One concern is that Hynix could lose market share in high-bandwidth memory as it runs into capacity limits.
Samsung’s recent progress has been noticeable. Output has improved. Performance has improved too. This includes early samples of its next-generation HBM4 memory, which is used in advanced AI chips. According to Susquehanna, these samples have shown clear improvement when delivered to major AI customers. This is happening even though final industry standards for HBM4 are still being finalized.
Factory space is another big advantage for Samsung. The company has spare clean-room capacity at its P4 facility. That space can be used quickly to produce HBM4. It supports both wafer production and the complex stacking process required for these chips. Many rivals do not have this flexibility. Most are already running close to full capacity.
This difference matters a lot. Demand for high-bandwidth memory is expected to surge as AI chips become more powerful. Susquehanna believes Samsung can ramp up HBM4 production faster and at much larger scale than SK Hynix. Hynix, while still the current leader, is seen as nearly maxed out when it comes to space.
Looking ahead, Susquehanna expects Samsung’s share of the HBM market to climb to around 22% by 2027. HBM is forecast to account for about 10% of Samsung’s DRAM revenue by the end of 2026. That figure could rise to roughly 13% to 15% in 2027.
