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Oil prices saw a small uptick in Asian trading on Thursday, with Brent crude up 0.4% to $65.88 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate up 0.3% to $62.13. The modest rise came as traders focused on Friday’s scheduled meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could have a major impact on global energy supplies.
The two leaders are expected to meet in Alaska to discuss terms for a Ukraine ceasefire. Trump has already warned that there will be “severe consequences” if Putin refuses to make peace. He has also threatened steep tariffs on countries buying large amounts of Russian oil, such as India and China. If these threats are carried out, or if Washington imposes new restrictions on Russia’s energy industry, global oil supply could tighten, pushing prices higher.
However, the situation could also swing the other way. Reports suggest Trump may offer Moscow concessions to pull back from Ukraine. If that leads to looser sanctions on Russian oil exports, more barrels could hit the market, worsening oversupply concerns and putting fresh pressure on prices.
The broader picture for oil remains weak. Crude is heading for its second straight week of steep losses, weighed down by persistent fears about cooling demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency both issued bearish forecasts this week. The IEA warned that the market is already “bloated” with supply, thanks in part to OPEC+ steadily raising production this year. It also projects a surplus of 3 million barrels a day by 2026 and slower demand growth in the coming months.
Adding to the gloom, U.S. government data showed a surprise 3 million-barrel increase in crude inventories last week, compared to expectations for a drawdown. This build signals a slowdown in fuel demand as the summer driving season winds down. Consumption typically eases in autumn and winter, which could further weigh on prices unless supply tightens.
For now, oil traders are in wait-and-see mode, watching both the Alaska meeting and upcoming market data for clues on the next move.