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The Cook Political Report has revised its assessment of Montana’s Senate seat, moving it from a “toss up” to a “lean Republican,” which is a major event for the 2024 Senate contests. This adjustment indicates increased confidence in GOP contender Tim Sheehy’s chances against incumbent Senator Jon Tester.
The race rating adjustment comes just days after another political handicapper also projected a favorable outcome for Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL. The shift underscores a broader trend where Republican prospects are improving in key Senate races, particularly in Montana, a state that has become increasingly critical for the GOP’s quest to secure a Senate majority.
Jon Tester, a Democrat who has held the seat since 2007, faces a challenging re-election bid this year. His previous victories in Montana were achieved in non-presidential election years, which often have different voter dynamics compared to presidential cycles. This time, Tester is not only contending with Sheehy but also sharing the ticket with Vice President Kamala Harris, a factor that could influence voter sentiment.
Recent polling data, including an AARP survey from earlier this month, shows Sheehy leading Tester by a clear margin. The poll indicated Sheehy with a 51%-45% lead in a direct matchup and a 49%-41% advantage in a multi-candidate field. These figures align with the Cook Political Report’s updated assessment and suggest Sheehy’s growing appeal in the state.
Montana’s Senate race is viewed as a critical battleground for Republicans, who are targeting this seat as part of their strategy to gain control of the Senate. Republicans are also eyeing opportunities in other states, with the seat vacated by Sen. The shift in Montana’s race comes amid broader trends affecting the 2024 elections.
As the November election approaches, the dynamics in Montana and other key states will be closely watched. The changing ratings and poll numbers highlight the evolving landscape of the 2024 elections and the pivotal role that both Senate and presidential races will play in shaping the next Congress.