Iron ore prices have been moving in a very steady way since the middle of 2024. They have been hovering between ninety and one hundred ten dollars a ton and sitting at an average of about one hundred. This is the lowest price swing seen since the industry moved to spot pricing back in 2008 and 2009.
Experts from UBS Global Research believe this calm comes from two big reasons. One is that China has changed how it buys iron ore. The other is that supply and demand in the market are more balanced than before.
A major factor has been the creation of China Minerals Resources Group in 2022. This group speaks for more than half of China’s steelmakers when dealing with global suppliers. It controls buying decisions, manages prices, and holds stockpiles. This has shifted power away from miners and given steelmakers more influence. With fewer traders speculating, prices are not bouncing around as wildly.
Last week iron ore was about one hundred five dollars a ton. This was helped by a small rebound in activity after a military parade in China, new work plans from Beijing, and hopes of an interest rate cut in the United States.
On the supply side, things look steady. Inventories at Chinese ports and mills are unchanged week to week. Brazil has reported a three percent rise in shipments this year. Steel production in China picked up in early August. At the same time, steel exports from China stayed near one hundred six million tons a year, even though more countries are placing trade restrictions. Baosteel still expects exports to remain above one hundred million tons in 2025, though they may cool in the last quarter.
Financial activity shows a slight negative turn on the Dalian exchange with contracts at minus two million tons. UBS analysts are neutral on mining giants like Vale, Rio Tinto, and BHP, but they suggest selling Fortescue Metals and KIO. For 2026, free cash flow yields are estimated at four percent for BHP, eight percent for Rio Tinto, and fifteen percent for Vale.
UBS believes this calm in prices could be the new normal. It may help steelmakers plan their costs better, but it leaves fewer opportunities for traders who rely on price swings. The main driver of future price trends will still be supply and demand, but China’s centralised buying power is expected to squeeze miners’ profits.
Overall, the iron ore market today is less about fast speculation and more about planned coordination. Stable inventories, balanced production, and China’s buying strategy have created a level of stability not seen in over fifteen years.