The share price of International Airlines Group has been moving in a tight range over the past few days. It recently touched an important level and slowed down. On Monday it was trading at 437p. That is just a little below its 2026 high of 450p.
If you look back to the pandemic days, the stock has come a very long way. It is now about 440% higher than its lowest level back then. The company is now worth more than £19 billion.
International Airlines Group is now the fourth largest airline in the world by market value. Only Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Ryanair are ahead of it. That is a big achievement for a company that struggled heavily during COVID.
So the big question is simple. Will the share price keep climbing or is it ready for a pullback
This year has been good for the airline industry. Travel demand has improved. One big positive is fuel prices. Data from IATA shows that jet fuel prices recently dropped to $256. That is about 1.3% lower than the previous week. Lower fuel prices mean lower costs for airlines. That usually helps profits.
Fuel prices could fall further if global tensions stay calm. But there is a risk. If the US under Donald Trump takes military action against Iran, oil prices could jump. Iran has already warned that any attack could affect the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. That area is very important for global oil supply.
At the same time, ticket prices are slowly rising. That is good news for airlines. Higher fares can improve profit margins. There are also signs that IAG may not be badly hurt by the recent US visa pause affecting many countries.
The latest financial results look stable. Revenue in the three months to September 30 was mostly flat. Profit after tax fell slightly by 2.3% to just over €1.4 billion. But operating profit actually rose by 2% to more than €2.05 billion.
Looking at the first 9 months of the year, revenue increased by 4.9% to €25.2 billion. After tax profit jumped 15.5% to over €2.7 billion. That is strong growth.
The company believes full year results will be better than it first expected. It benefits from a strong presence in Europe, South America and the North Atlantic. These are busy travel routes.
Some investors are worried that the stock may be too expensive because it is close to its all time high. But the numbers tell a different story.
The price to earnings ratio is around 7.8. That is lower than Delta at 9, United at 10 and much lower than Southwest and American Airlines. The forward ratio is around 7.2. That suggests the stock may still be cheap compared to rivals.
Analysts expect operating profit to stay strong. Last year it was about €5 billion. This year it could reach €5.2 billion. The next results are due on February 27. Investors will be watching closely.
From a chart point of view, the stock has been in a steady uptrend for years. The recovery started after it hit very low levels during the pandemic. Since then it has climbed step by step.
It is trading above its key moving averages. That is usually seen as a positive sign. The stock is also near the same level it reached back in early 2020 before the pandemic crash.
Many traders believe the next important level to watch is 500p. If momentum stays strong, the stock could try to move toward that level in the coming weeks. But as always in the stock market, nothing moves in a straight line.