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Goldman Sachs downgraded CNH Industrial from Buy to Neutral, citing that the stock’s recent outperformance has already priced in expected margin and revenue recovery for 2026. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a longer-than-anticipated inventory destocking cycle, CNH shares have risen about 35% over the past year, even as earnings estimates have declined.
Goldman analysts believe the current valuation is now fair and aligned with sector peers, leading to a more balanced risk to reward profile. They cut their 12-month price target to $11.50 from $12.50, implying roughly 9% downside from current levels. The bank also revised its industrial EBIT forecasts downward for FY26 and FY27 by 13% and 17%, respectively, reflecting softer pricing power and extended destocking through the second half of 2025.
While Goldman sees potential tailwinds in agriculture and construction markets, including normalising inventory, ageing U.S. fleets, and supportive European policies, it believes these positives are already reflected in the stock price. Forecasts now call for agricultural segment revenues to grow 6% in 2026 and 10% in 2027, while construction is expected to rise 9% and 18% over the same period.
The analysts acknowledged CNH’s solid competitive position and improving sales trajectory but pointed to a lack of near-term catalysts, delayed strategic initiatives, and a valuation that leaves limited room for further upside. Their revised price target is based on a mix of sum-of-the-parts analysis and relative sector valuation.