Gold prices have decisively broken out of their recent consolidation, pushing to a fresh all-time high earlier on Tuesday. At the time of writing, bullion was trading around $4,725, marking a clear end to the week-long range-bound phase. The breakout has also set the stage for the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF, which tracks the performance of physical gold, to attempt a similar record move.
A combination of a weaker US dollar and escalating concerns over President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda has driven investors toward safe-haven assets. Following a stellar performance in 2025, gold has carried its bullish momentum into the new year. Just three weeks into 2026, bullion is already up close to 10%, while the GLD ETF has gained more than 5%.
Gold’s rally reflects persistent demand for safety amid elevated economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Strong central bank purchases and steady ETF inflows have continued to underpin prices, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a portfolio hedge.
Fresh tariff threats from the US administration have further intensified this demand. President Trump has indicated plans to impose tariffs on exports from 8 European countries that oppose his proposal to acquire Greenland. The countries named include the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, France, Norway, and Finland. The announcement has raised fears of a broader trade confrontation, especially as the European Union considers retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion on US imports.
The tariff rhetoric has also reignited de-dollarization concerns, pressuring the greenback. The US dollar index has slipped to around 98.44, a level last seen roughly 2 weeks ago. A weaker dollar typically supports gold by making it cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Looking ahead, gold prices are likely to remain sensitive to macroeconomic and policy developments. Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for next week. While markets are currently pricing in 2 interest rate cuts later this year, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its first FOMC meeting of 2026. A prolonged period of higher interest rates could temper gold’s upside by supporting the dollar, although broader uncertainty may continue to offset this pressure.
The GLD ETF edged slightly lower on Monday but remained confined within the narrow range that has defined trading over the past week. Importantly, prices have held above the former resistance-turned-support level at $418, which was broken for the first time on 12 January.
With spot gold printing a new record high, GLD appears positioned to defend current support and challenge its own all-time high near $426. The RSI stands at 64, suggesting momentum remains bullish without signaling overbought conditions. This leaves room for a potential extension toward the $450 level in the coming sessions.
On the downside, a corrective pullback below $418 could expose the lower support zone around $414. Even in that scenario, the broader bullish structure would remain intact as long as GLD continues to trade above its rising trendline and the short-term 25-day EMA.
