Gold prices could surge to an all time high of $5,050 per ounce in the first half of 2026, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and growing global debt. However, this sharp rally may not last, with a meaningful correction expected later in the year, according to a new analysis from HSBC.
In a note quoted by Kitco, HSBC said it expects gold to trade in a wide range in 2026, between $3,950 and $5,050 per ounce. The bank sees gold ending that year around $4,450.
HSBC slightly raised its gold price forecast for 2025 to $5,050 from $5,000. At the same time, it lowered its average forecast for 2026 to $4,587 from $4,600. The bank said this adjustment reflects the risk of a pullback once prices climb too high.
Analysts warned that 2026 could be a volatile year for gold. They said the current correction could deepen if global geopolitical tensions ease or if the US Federal Reserve stops cutting interest rates. Either development could reduce gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
Looking further ahead, HSBC significantly increased its long term forecasts. The bank now expects an average gold price of $4,625 in 2027, up from $3,950. For 2028, it raised its forecast to $4,700 from $3,630. HSBC also introduced a new forecast for 2029, setting the average price at $4,775 per ounce.
Rodolphe Bohn, HSBC’s currencies and commodities strategist, said late last year that gold’s upward trend is likely to continue. He pointed to strong demand from central banks and retail investors as key drivers.
In HSBC’s Think Future 2026 outlook, Bohn said the bank remains positive on gold despite recent price swings. He noted that gold continues to play an important role in diversifying global portfolios, especially during periods of market stress.
Gold, he said, has shown resilience during times of turbulence and still has room to rise. According to Bohn, 2025 was one of the strongest years for gold on record.
He attributed this strong performance to rising global uncertainty and concerns about the long term value of the US dollar. Even as global equities have performed well and overall sentiment has improved, these factors have continued to support gold prices.
Bohn said gold should remain well supported by steady central bank buying, ongoing worries about a weaker dollar, and sustained interest in gold backed exchange traded funds. In this environment, gold remains a key portfolio diversifier for investors navigating global uncertainty.
However, he also acknowledged risks to HSBC’s bullish outlook. These include the possibility of the Federal Reserve turning more aggressive on interest rates or a stronger than expected improvement in the global economy.
Overall, HSBC expects gold prices to rise at a gradual pace over time, supported by a weakening US dollar and continued monetary easing globally, especially from the Federal Reserve.
