Global demand for smartphones is expected to fall again in twenty twenty six. This is what Fubon Research says in a new note. Even with this drop, there is one part of the market that still looks exciting. Foldable phones. And especially Apple finally joining the foldable race.

The analyst Arthur Liao thinks the world will ship around one point two billion phones in twenty twenty six. This is about four percent lower than the year before. He also says China will ship two hundred seventy five million phones. That is a drop of three percent. iPhone shipments are also expected to fall. He thinks they will go down to two hundred thirty four million units. That is a decline of four percent.

Costs are also rising. Fubon points out that the price of DRAM chips has jumped more than seventy five percent compared to the end of twenty twenty four. Because of this and other higher parts costs, the total cost to build a phone could rise by five to seven percent next year. This puts even more pressure on phone makers.

But in the middle of all this, Apple’s first foldable iPhone is expected to be the big moment everyone is waiting for. Fubon thinks the parts used in this device will be very expensive. The flexible panel. The hinge. The lightweight structure. All of this could push the phone toward the high end of the price range people are guessing about.

Rumors say the foldable iPhone could cost between two thousand and two thousand five hundred dollars. But Fubon Research expects a very specific number. They believe it will be two thousand three hundred ninety nine dollars. They say this is based on studying Apple’s supply chain and the company’s need to keep its profit margins stable.

Fubon says that the success of this phone will depend a lot on the price. Still, they are hopeful. They are using a seven percent adoption estimate, and with that, they think the foldable iPhone could sell more than fifteen million units over its entire lifetime. They also expect five point four million of those sales to happen in twenty twenty six alone.

Apple is also planning to improve the camera in twenty twenty six. Fubon thinks the iPhone 18 series will get a new type of camera lens that can change its aperture. They believe this lens will be made only by Largan because the technology is very complicated.

So even though overall phone demand is getting weaker, Fubon says foldable phones are still the bright spot. They think foldables will be the only real highlight in the smartphone world in twenty twenty six.