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Duke will be without its star freshman, Cooper Flagg, when they take on Louisville in the ACC Tournament final on Saturday night. Flagg, who has delivered a spectacular season and was even in contention for National Player of the Year, suffered an ankle sprain, cutting short his conference tournament run.
Duke Holding strong without Flagg
Despite his absence, Duke has managed to stay competitive. They secured a crucial win against North Carolina in the semifinals and are still a strong contender against Louisville. Interestingly, while Flagg’s presence on the court gives Duke a dominant +25.6 net rating, the team has actually posted an even better +29.7 rating without him.
However, make no mistake—Duke needs Flagg at full strength if they hope to make a serious run for the national championship. His availability could also play a major role in determining whether they secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Selection Committee will be watching closely, and while Duke has built an impressive resume, uncertainty around Flagg’s health could introduce some doubt.
Can Duke secure a No. 1 Seed?
The path to a No. 1 seed seems clear: win the ACC title, and the Blue Devils will almost certainly claim one of the coveted top spots. Even if they lose to Louisville, their dominant standing in AP, NET, and KenPom rankings suggests they’ve already done enough to be in the conversation.
That said, Selection Sunday is unpredictable. As ESPN’s Myron Medcalf points out, each committee member values different criteria. If Flagg remains sidelined beyond the tournament’s opening rounds, there’s a chance Duke could slip slightly in the rankings.
What happened to Cooper Flagg?
Flagg sustained his injury during Duke’s quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech, landing awkwardly on an opponent’s foot while going for a rebound. He was helped off the court and later seen in a wheelchair, sparking concerns about the severity of his injury. Post-game X-rays came back negative, and Duke head coach Jon Scheyer confirmed it was just a sprain. However, the team is closely monitoring his recovery.
When will Flagg return?
Details on Flagg’s recovery timeline remain scarce. The fact that he returned to the bench without a walking boot is an encouraging sign, and reports suggest Duke has informed the NCAA that he will be available for tournament play. Still, without an official update, speculation remains.
If Duke secures a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, their first-round opponent will likely be an easier matchup, allowing them to be cautious with Flagg’s return. If he’s not fully recovered, he may sit out the first round and aim for a return in the second round on March 22 or 23.
Could Flagg’s injury affect Duke’s seeding?
The Selection Committee does consider injuries when finalizing tournament seeding. Committee Chair Chris Reynolds has previously stated that teams are evaluated based on how they perform without key players.
History has shown that injuries can impact seeding. In 2000, Cincinnati lost National Player of the Year Kenyon Martin to a broken leg in their conference tournament and subsequently dropped to a No. 2 seed. Kansas experienced a similar fate in 2024 when injuries to Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar contributed to a slide to a No. 4 seed.
That said, Duke’s overall body of work remains one of the best in the nation. If they win the ACC title, Flagg’s injury may not hurt their seeding too much. But if his recovery lingers into the NCAA Tournament, uncertainty could still factor into the committee’s decision.
For now, all eyes are on Duke’s ACC Championship game and Flagg’s recovery—two factors that could shape their road to March Madness.