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The impact of climate hazards on housing decisions is becoming increasingly apparent as millions of Americans prioritize environmental safety when choosing where to live. According to a recent analysis by Redfin, both renters and homeowners are increasingly factoring in climate risks when deciding on their next move, with affordability remaining a driving force behind migration trends.
Between 2021 and 2022, approximately 1.2 million more homeowners and renters opted to leave U.S. cities with high risks of poor air quality than those who moved in, the Redfin analysis reveals. Conversely, cities with low air quality risks saw an influx of one million new residents during the same period. Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, notes that climate risks play a significant role in individuals’ housing decisions, influencing the types of homes they choose to purchase.
The analysis, which combines domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau with air quality risk scores from the First Street Foundation, identifies key trends in relocation patterns. First Street Foundation categorizes metros as “high risk” if at least 10% of properties face major, severe, or extreme air quality issues. Conversely, metros with less than 10% of properties falling into these categories are deemed “low risk.”
While poor air quality is driving residents away from certain metros, many are finding themselves confronted with different climate hazards in their new locations. The migration pattern often leads individuals to Sunbelt states like Arizona, Florida, and Texas, where air quality risks are lower but heat, flood, and wind risks remain significant.
Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street Foundation, observes a shift in population dynamics as people gravitate towards safer areas. However, he notes that those unable to afford relocation remain disproportionately exposed to climate risks, underscoring the importance of addressing affordability concerns alongside environmental hazards.
For many residents, the decision to relocate is driven not only by climate risks but also by affordability pressures. Fairweather shares her personal experience of relocating from Seattle to Wisconsin due to poor air quality caused by wildfires. The affordability factor becomes increasingly crucial as home prices in riskier metros are substantially higher than those in low-risk areas.
As housing costs soar to record highs, individuals are becoming more cognizant of climate risks when purchasing homes, with insurance costs expected to reflect these hazards. Fairweather predicts that insurance bills could rise in areas prone to climate-related risks, potentially prompting insurers to limit coverage in certain markets.
As Americans grapple with the dual challenges of climate change and housing affordability, informed decision-making and policy interventions are essential to ensure the safety and well-being of all residents in the face of evolving environmental threats.