Prediction markets are now clearly leaning bearish on Bitcoin. This shift came after a heavy weekend sell-off. The drop pushed Bitcoin below $75,000 on Monday for a short time. Earlier gains were wiped out. Fresh doubts have surfaced about how strong the rally really is.
On Polymarket, traders rushed to bet on more downside. The chances of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 at some point in 2026 jumped to 72% on Monday. Nearly $1 million has already been placed on that outcome. This shows strong confidence in a deeper fall.
Other bets show mixed feelings. There is a 61% chance placed on Bitcoin dropping below $55,000. At the same time, traders still give a 54% chance that Bitcoin could climb back above $100,000 before the year ends. The market is clearly split. Fear is rising, but hope is not gone.
This change in betting behavior shows a clear mood reversal. Bitcoin has now lost the gains it made after Donald Trump won the US election in November 2024. Since late last year, prices have stayed under pressure.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell hard. It dropped nearly 11%, sliding from around $84,000 on Saturday to about $74,600 early Monday. That marked a 9-month low. Prices later stabilized near $77,600, but confidence remains shaky.
Many believe big investors are stepping back. Instead of buying the dip, institutions seem to be reducing exposure. This is adding to selling pressure.
The fall also hit Strategy, the largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder. For the first time since late 2023, Bitcoin traded below the company’s average buying price. This carried strong symbolic weight for the market.
Some analysts say this is not a sudden crash. They believe Bitcoin has been in a bear market for months. CryptoQuant says the bear phase started in November 2025. That was when Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, warned traders not to rush. He said bear market bottoms take time. They can take months to fully form. His message was clear. Catching the bottom too early can be risky.
This view clashes with earlier bullish calls. Late last year, Grayscale said Bitcoin could break its previous high of $126,000 by June 2026. That forecast was based on expected institutional demand and clearer US rules.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein were even more optimistic before. Both had predicted Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026. Since then, they have cooled their targets. Slower money inflows into crypto ETFs forced a rethink.
ETF data is now adding more pressure. Bitcoin is trading below the average buying price of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, pointed this out recently.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage about $113 billion in total assets. Together, they hold around 1.28 million Bitcoin. That puts the average purchase price near $87,830 per coin. Current prices are well below that level.
This means many ETF investors are sitting on losses right now. Over the last 2 weeks alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.8 billion flow out. Last week recorded $1.49 billion in outflows. The week before saw another $1.32 billion leave.
Back in October, US Bitcoin ETFs peaked at $165 billion in assets. Since then, their total value has dropped by more than 31%. During the same time, Bitcoin’s price has fallen nearly 40%.
All signs point to growing stress in the market. For now, caution is winning over optimism.
