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Apple’s highly anticipated Vision Pro virtual reality headset encountered swift demand, selling out shortly after preorders opened. However, concerns are emerging as shipping times for all models surged to five to seven weeks within hours of the release, raising speculation that initial fervor may not translate into sustained demand.
Ming-Chi Kuo, a renowned Apple analyst from TF International Securities, estimated that Apple managed to sell between 160,000 and 180,000 Vision Pro units over the weekend. Despite the rapid sell-out, Kuo expressed apprehension as extended shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after preorders commenced. In a blog post, he highlighted this development as a “major concern” and suggested that demand might diminish once core fans and heavy users complete their orders.
Kuo drew a comparison with popular iPhone models, noting that, unlike the Vision Pro, iPhones typically continue to experience a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after preorders open. This trend indicates sustained demand growth even after the initial sell-out. Kuo emphasized that shipping times for Vision Pro remained unchanged, signaling a potential challenge for Apple in maintaining sustained demand.
While Kuo initially forecasted Apple producing only 60,000 to 80,000 Vision Pro units for the February 2 release, he now believes it “should not be challenging” for Apple to ship 500,000 units in total this year. In contrast, analysts at Morgan Stanley projected a more conservative estimate, suggesting Apple might ship 300,000 to 400,000 units in 2024.
The Vision Pro, priced at $3,499, is not anticipated to yield an immediate significant revenue boost for Apple. Wall Street analysts view it as a niche product for a specific audience. Despite the potential for an early demand slowdown, industry observers are closely monitoring the initial reception of Apple’s venture into the virtual reality market, considering its implications for the product’s future trajectory.
As Apple navigates the evolving landscape of virtual reality, the success and sustained demand for the Vision Pro will be closely scrutinized, offering insights into the broader adoption and potential growth of this new product category. Apple has not yet commented on the recent developments.