Will the box office manage to reach the impressive $9 billion mark by the end of 2023? Industry analysts have been hopeful, if not confident, about this ambitious target for domestic grosses. The upcoming two weeks promise the release of eight highly anticipated films, potentially providing the necessary push for theaters to surpass this coveted figure before the year concludes.
However, the entertainment industry has endured a tumultuous year marked by two significant labor strikes, further complicating its recovery from the lingering effects of the pandemic. Hollywood faces an uphill battle in securing its much-desired success story.
As of December 17th, Comscore reports that the domestic box office has amassed $8.58 billion, leaving a margin of roughly $416 million to reach the $9 billion milestone. Regardless of where ticket sales ultimately land, 2023 already stands as the most financially successful year since the movie theater landscape was disrupted by COVID. It significantly surpasses the $7.46 billion haul of 2022 and the $4.56 billion of 2021. However, it still falls short of pre-pandemic levels when annual box office earnings comfortably ranged between $10 billion and $11 billion. One reason for this decline is the reduced number of films released by Hollywood studios, with 88 films hitting theaters in 2023 compared to 108 in 2019, a year when ticket sales reached $10.5 billion.
The next fortnight promises the arrival of several blockbuster releases, including Universal and Illumination’s animated feature “Migration,” the romantic comedy “Anyone But You” starring Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell, Warner’s musical adaptation of “The Color Purple,” the DC Comics sequel “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom,” A24’s sports drama “The Iron Claw,” Neon’s racing drama “Ferrari,” George Clooney’s directorial effort “The Boys in the Boat,” and the literary satire “American Fiction.” These films are anticipated to make their mark on the big screen before the year concludes, aiming to significantly contribute toward reaching the $9 billion domestic target, as noted by senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
Contrary to recent years where a single blockbuster dominated the Christmas box office, this time the wealth is anticipated to be spread across multiple releases. Nevertheless, theater owners are not banking on a billion-dollar mega-hit to cap off the year. Even if the scheduled movies perform well, they may not collectively match the revenue generated during the last two holiday seasons.
The scheduling of Christmas and New Year’s Eve on Sundays this year is a concern for theater owners, who believe that attendance and sales typically flourish when these holidays fall on Thursdays or Fridays.
“In some years, adding another $417 million in the final stretch of the year would be relatively easy,” remarks Dergarabedian. “However, this year presents more uncertainty due to unique variables at play.”