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Allan Lichtman has gained attention recently for his latest predictions about U.S. elections, which have sparked interest due to his long-standing track record of accurately forecasting the outcomes of presidential races. Known for his Lichtman-Karnig Model—a unique set of 13 keys that predict the outcome of presidential elections based on historical and political factors—Lichtman has become one of the most respected political forecasters in the country. His reputation was cemented when he accurately predicted the victories of candidates like Donald Trump (2016), despite many traditional polls and pundits favoring Hillary Clinton.
Lichtman’s Model: A quick overview
Lichtman’s forecasting model, known as the 13 Keys to the White House, is a statistical approach that doesn’t rely on traditional polling or opinion surveys. Instead, it uses historical, objective factors to predict the outcome of an election. These factors assess everything from economic performance and social stability to the incumbent’s approval ratings and the state of foreign policy. According to Lichtman:
- 6 or more false keys predict that the incumbent party will lose the election.
- 5 or fewer false keys predict that the incumbent party will win.
Lichtman’s success rate with the model has been remarkable, with him predicting every U.S. presidential election correctly from 1984 onward, including Trump’s 2016 win, despite widespread skepticism among other experts and pollsters.
Lichtman’s Previous Predictions
- 1984 Election (Reagan vs. Mondale):
- Prediction: Ronald Reagan would win.
- Outcome: Reagan won in a landslide, sweeping 49 states.
- 1988 Election (Bush Sr. vs. Dukakis):
- Prediction: George H.W. Bush would win.
- Outcome: Bush won by a wide margin.
- 1992 Election (Clinton vs. Bush Sr. vs. Perot):
- Prediction: Bill Clinton would win.
- Outcome: Clinton triumphed with a significant victory, defeating incumbent George H.W. Bush.
- 2000 Election (Bush vs. Gore):
- Prediction: George W. Bush would win.
- Outcome: Bush won after a contentious recount and Supreme Court decision, despite losing the popular vote.
- 2004 Election (Bush vs. Kerry):
- Prediction: George W. Bush would win.
- Outcome: Bush won, despite a close race in the battleground states.
- 2008 Election (Obama vs. McCain):
- Prediction: Barack Obama would win.
- Outcome: Obama won in a decisive victory.
- 2012 Election (Obama vs. Romney):
- Prediction: Barack Obama would win.
- Outcome: Obama won re-election comfortably.
- 2016 Election (Trump vs. Clinton):
- Prediction: Donald Trump would win.
- Outcome: Trump won, defying the predictions of most mainstream pollsters and experts, making Lichtman one of the few to predict his victory accurately.
- 2020 Election (Trump vs. Biden):
- Prediction: Joe Biden would win.
- Outcome: Biden won, defeating Trump in a contentious election with a high voter turnout.
Predictions for 2024 Elections
Allan Lichtman has shared his forecast for this year’s race, predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris will emerge victorious. In a video reported by The New York Times, Lichtman based his prediction on his 13 “keys”—a set of true-false questions assessing the incumbent party’s performance. According to his analysis, eight of the keys favor Harris, while three favor Donald Trump. Lichtman acknowledged that foreign policy, especially the Biden administration’s involvement in the Gaza conflict, remains uncertain and could alter the outcome, as these keys could potentially flip. However, even if both foreign policy keys turn negative, Lichtman believes Trump still wouldn’t have enough support to reclaim the White House, as he would only have five negative keys. Consequently, Lichtman predicts that Harris will win the 2024 election.