OpenAI has taken on a very large amount of new computing costs. It recently made big agreements with Microsoft and Amazon. But these deals did not bring in new money. Because of this, HSBC says the company may face a funding shortage of more than two hundred billion dollars by 2030.
In the past month, OpenAI signed cloud contracts worth two hundred eighty eight billion dollars. This includes a deal with Microsoft for two hundred fifty billion dollars’ worth of computing power and a seven year deal with Amazon worth thirty eight billion dollars.
HSBC said these big commitments show how expensive it is to grow large AI models. But they also raise concerns about whether OpenAI can grow its revenue fast enough to keep up with its spending.
The bank estimates that OpenAI now expects to spend about one point four trillion dollars on computing over the next eight years. From mid 2025 to 2030 alone, OpenAI may pay almost eight hundred billion dollars just on data center costs. By 2033, this total could reach one point four trillion dollars.
When HSBC compared these huge costs to OpenAI’s revenue forecast, it found a funding gap of about two hundred seven billion dollars by 2030. The bank did increase its revenue outlook slightly because it expects more paying users and a bigger share of digital advertising. But even with that, the gap remains massive.
HSBC said that whether OpenAI can manage this problem will depend on how flexible the company is with its contracts and how quickly it can increase the number of paying customers. If OpenAI can raise the share of paying users to twenty percent by 2030 instead of ten percent, it could earn almost two hundred billion dollars more between 2026 and 2030. Other ways to close the gap include reducing costs, raising new investor money or taking on debt.
HSBC added that these enormous spending plans have worried investors. This is understandable because OpenAI is expected to make only about twelve and a half billion dollars in revenue in 2025. Still, the bank believes a long period of heavy investment in AI will continue as the technology boosts productivity across the economy.
OpenAI’s expansion is part of a larger rush among AI developers, cloud companies and chipmakers to benefit from rising demand. According to HSBC, the companies most affected by OpenAI’s performance include Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD and SoftBank.