Investment firm Jefferies has lowered its rating for Belgian drug company UCB, moving it from “buy” to “underperform.” The main reason is slower growth for the company’s top-selling medicine, Bimzelx, which treats skin conditions like psoriasis and hidradenitis suppurativa. Jefferies now expects the company’s future sales to fall about 10% to 15% below earlier predictions starting from 2026.
Following the downgrade, UCB’s shares dropped around 2.5% in early trading. The report pointed out that U.S. demand for Bimzelx has started to cool down. Fewer new patients are starting treatment, and sales growth week by week has weakened. Analysts said this shows that most of the early boost from new patients is now wearing off.
Since Bimzelx is expected to make up roughly half of UCB’s total revenue by 2030, this slowdown is worrying. Jefferies said it’s unlikely investors will see any major upgrades or surprises in the company’s performance anytime soon. The report also mentioned that the number of new patients beginning treatment has leveled off, suggesting there’s not much new demand coming in even though the drug is more widely available now.
The analysts believe the slowdown might be caused by tighter insurance coverage, fewer patient assistance programs, or simply the fact that most eligible patients have already started treatment.
Jefferies now predicts UCB will make about €8.18 billion in revenue and €2.75 billion in profit before taxes and expenses in 2026. That’s slightly below market expectations of €8.32 billion and €2.84 billion. For 2025, the forecast is €7.4 billion in revenue and €2.25 billion in profit, both around 3% lower than earlier estimates.
They’ve also set a new price target of €212 per share, which is about 14% lower than the stock’s previous closing price of €246.40.
Another concern raised by Jefferies is the pricing of Bimzelx in the U.S. It costs about six times more per patient compared to Europe, and around 27% of its patients are covered by Medicaid, much higher than the industry average. This could make UCB more vulnerable if new U.S. drug pricing laws come into effect.
Looking further ahead, Jefferies now expects Bimzelx to bring in about €6.3 billion in sales by 2032, compared to the earlier market estimate of €7 billion. The firm says growth in prescriptions has slowed after a strong start, and the market for one of its key conditions may be smaller than expected. Overall, Jefferies believes UCB could face a tougher road ahead, with less momentum and more pricing pressure in the years to come.
