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Heineken’s stock fell about 1.1% on Thursday after the Dutch beer giant said it expects to sell less beer in 2026, extending its warning that tough economic conditions are hitting consumer demand.
During its capital markets day in Seville, Heineken reaffirmed its long-term “EverGreen 2030” growth plan but didn’t raise its earnings outlook, leaving some investors disappointed.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said that Heineken’s mid-term growth and profit margin goals are already factored into market expectations. They added that currency challenges and weak sales trends are still dampening investor confidence.
To boost performance, Heineken plans to increase its marketing budget to over 10% of revenue, up from 9.8% this year. The focus will be on promoting its key brands and improving sales of its alcohol-free “0.0%” beers, where it has lost ground to rivals.
The company also unveiled a new product, “Heineken 0.0 Ultimate,” which contains no sugar or calories and will launch globally in 2026. The goal is to reignite growth in the “moderation” category for health-conscious drinkers.
Executives said the current slowdown in beer consumption is temporary and linked to the economic cycle, not a lasting trend. They promised to keep prices below inflation levels to make their products more affordable again.
Heineken expects only about 1% growth in total beer volumes per year, with stronger demand in emerging markets balancing out weaker sales in developed countries.
The brewer also confirmed plans to save €400–500 million annually through digital tools and better purchasing strategies. It aims for a capital intensity of 7–8% and cash conversion above 90% over the medium term.
Morgan Stanley said the company’s strategy reinforces confidence in its long-term position but doesn’t do much to calm concerns about slow short-term growth and ongoing currency pressures.