Vale shared its production numbers for the last quarter of 2025 on Tuesday. The response from the market was mostly positive. This came at a time when stocks have been rising at the start of the year, even though this period is usually weak.
Vale produced 336.1 million tons of iron ore in 2025. This was a 2.6 percent increase from 2024. The growth came despite challenges linked to export adjustments.
For the first time since 2018, Vale produced more iron ore than its biggest rival. Rio Tinto reported production of 327.3 million tons. This allowed Vale to regain its position as the world’s largest iron ore producer.
This moment carries deep meaning for Vale. The company lost its top spot in 2019 after the Brumadinho dam collapse in Brazil. The disaster took hundreds of lives. It forced Vale to rethink safety, operations, and long term plans. Production suffered for years after that.
In recent years, Vale has slowly rebuilt. Output has been rising steadily. The gap with Rio Tinto kept narrowing. Vale’s president Gustavo Pimenta has often said the company would return to the top. The latest data shows that promise is becoming reality.
In the fourth quarter, iron ore production rose nearly 6 percent from last year. This was slightly above market expectations. Shipments of iron ore fines increased 7 percent. Higher output from Vargem Grande, Capanema, and Brucutu helped drive this growth.
Pellet sales moved in the opposite direction. Volumes fell 10 percent compared to last year.
Vale also delivered strong results in other metals. Copper production and sales rose 6 percent over the year. Better performance at the Salobo and Sossego mines played a key role. Salobo even reached record production levels.
Copper prices also helped. Realised prices increased by about $1,185 per ton each quarter compared to reference prices on the London Metal Exchange.
Nickel production also stood out. Output rose sharply, especially in Brazil. Production there reached a record high. This marked the strongest nickel performance since 2022.
Major banks reacted positively. JPMorgan described the quarter as strong across all segments. It said iron ore and copper output were at their highest levels since 2018. Goldman Sachs said iron ore production met expectations. Copper output beat forecasts by a wide margin. Nickel production also came in above estimates.
After years of weak performance, analysts believe investors may start looking at Vale differently. Stronger operations and better base metal output are changing sentiment.
Vale’s shares are up 17 percent so far this year. The stock has outperformed peers by a wide margin. Higher commodity prices, improved execution, and strong investment flows into Brazil are supporting the rally.
Goldman Sachs finds Vale’s valuation attractive. The stock trades at higher free cash flow levels than Rio Tinto and BHP. The bank also pointed to better capital discipline and lower risk from large acquisitions.
Still, risks remain. Goldman Sachs believes iron ore prices may be near the peak of the current cycle. It expects prices to fall about 8 percent by the end of 2026.
Despite this, Goldman continues to recommend buying Vale’s ADRs. Other banks also remain positive. Some analysts are more cautious, warning that iron ore prices could soften after the current restocking phase.
