Dutch gas prices have jumped sharply as 2026 begins. Analysts are now expecting higher prices for the year because colder weather is tightening supplies and using up storage.
Goldman Sachs says January in northwest Europe is expected to be much colder than usual. Gas use in the region could rise 11% more than they first thought. Cold weather in other parts of Europe is also causing more gas to flow out of northwest Europe through pipelines.
Because of this, Goldman now expects gas storage at the end of March 2026 to be only 16% full. Earlier, they thought it would be 28%. Storage at the end of October 2026 has also been lowered from 84% to 76%, after a weak 75% fill in October 2025.
Gas prices have reacted quickly. The price for prompt TTF gas rose about 30% in a week to €37 per megawatt hour. The 2026 contract went up 16% to €31 per megawatt hour.
The price jump has moved gas out of the lignite coal range and into the hard-coal range. This makes gas-fired power less attractive. Prices for later years have not moved much. 2027 contracts have only a small increase, and longer-term prices are mostly steady.
Goldman says the difference between short-term and long-term prices shows that this winter’s tight supply is expected to ease during 2026. Gas-to-coal switching can happen if prices rise more, but they do not expect storage to fill close to 100% by the end of summer.
Samantha Dart from Goldman Sachs says the rise in global LNG supply will make gas more available, even in winter. She expects storage to reach at least 80% by the end of October 2026, rather than full capacity.
Given all this, Goldman has raised its 2026 TTF forecast to €36 per megawatt hour from €29. They expect a higher average in the first half of the year and a lower average in the second half. This should reduce gas demand for power and help storage recover toward the target.
Higher carbon emission prices are also pushing gas prices up. Carbon prices have risen sharply, making gas more expensive compared to coal. This means gas needs to be priced higher to encourage switching to coal.
Goldman has also slightly raised the 2027 TTF forecast to €23 per megawatt hour. But they remain cautious for the long term, pointing to a big global LNG oversupply. They expect TTF prices to drop in 2028 and 2029 to levels that control LNG supply and manage inventories.
